Bitcoin short - target $39,200

25 Feb 2021

I’ve removed the wicks from the hourly chart because it’s easier to spot what is happening when they are removed. Notice the symmetrical triangle pattern on the chart, which is also a bearish pennant. Bearish pennants are bearish price action patterns that help traders identify whether price action is going to reverse or continue. If you look at #1, you can see that there was a massive bull trap initiated by some substantial price action breaking out above the triangle/pennant. Then, over the course of a few hours we saw prices move lower and ultimately back into the bearish pennant. I’ve drawn to red arrows to show the ‘point of no return’ for Bitcoin on this hourly chart. The left most arrow is where the Lagging Span is currently at. When the Lagging Span reaches $48,000 it will generate three massive bearish events. The first is when the Lagging Span closes below the candlesticks, the second when it closes below the Cloud, and the third when it closes below the Kijun-Sen. If those three conditions become true, then that means price has also dropped below the Cloud – creating an entry known as an Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Entry. Expect some swift action to the south.
On the hourly chart, the RSI has failed seven times to cross above 60, having been rejected those seven times since yesterday (Feb 24th) starting at 10 PM EST. A similar resistance level can be seen on the Composite Index as well. What really makes this entire setup ugly is where the %B is at. The %B is just a hair above the 0.2 level. . When the %B crosses below 0.2, and the RSI is above 40 (currently at 46.6) – then we have an almost guaranteed short entry. The price target I have from this hourly chart is the $39,200 value area. But this is Bitcoin and we could see some random spike to 100k in a two-day period as well – but not likely.