BTC Expanding Triangle Whipsaw Pattern (Elliott Wave)
The last few weeks on BTC have formed a huge whipsaw pattern, constantly faking out in each direction. This is common for an expanding triangle pattern, and this current triangle also has very good time relations (and lack of fibonacci price relations). Wave-e also broke beyond the a-c trendline as is standard for expanding triangles.
Last week I said that we'd get one final run up to the highs and BTC would double top while some alts made new all time highs. This is exactly what has happened, and based on this expanding pattern, as well as the longer-term chart that I published in December, I believe the top is in for the rest of the year.
The next move down should be extremely large and violent, probably ending somewhere around 30k towards the middle of this year. The b-wave recovery after that will likely be slow and followed by another c-wave before we finally end this major correction sometime in 2026.
Last week I said that we'd get one final run up to the highs and BTC would double top while some alts made new all time highs. This is exactly what has happened, and based on this expanding pattern, as well as the longer-term chart that I published in December, I believe the top is in for the rest of the year.
The next move down should be extremely large and violent, probably ending somewhere around 30k towards the middle of this year. The b-wave recovery after that will likely be slow and followed by another c-wave before we finally end this major correction sometime in 2026.
Nota
Shorting BTC September 2025 futures on OKX with $9,000 in premium seems like the best long-term play for this setup, because they are currently trading at 109k and the premium will eventually go to 0 as this collapse begins to accelerate.Nota
Funny enough, this did end up squeezing out the very last little bit of my price/time target, and reversed perfectly on my time target, and stopped right under my upper price target. Despite very briefly breaking ATH, I believe that we're still headed much lower from here. This was just the final part of the whipsaw pattern.
Nota
Looks like wave-e of the expanding triangle formed a 2nd x-wave and a contracting triangle as the final phase of a triple combination, adding to the whipsaw even more.
If this were to breakout and make a new all time high, then the chances that this can continue up are high. But for now odds seem to favor the downside from here.
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
Based on the size of the retracement off of today's drop, there's a good chance that this continues to make at least one more new high. Support seems relatively strong here, especially considering the long-term break out of the weekly and monthly wisemen. Next move up should go at least to $120-130k by February.
Nota
Based on the recent choppiness of the market I am very cautious trading this one in either direction until things start to clear up more. Downside still seems very likely but I am happy to stay out of this market until things start to clear up. If I see a clear trade set up, I will publish a new chart. The slightly bullish forecast from above is not a trade, and even if it did get another small wave up it's likely not going to go very far and will probably be completely retraced.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.