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BTC CPI 1H (Jan)

170
CPI (YoY)-

PREVIOUS: 2.9%
FORECAST: 2.9%
ACTUAL: ??

Consumer price index data release rolls around once again, this time the forecast is no change (0.0%) remaining at the same December 2024 level of 2.9%. It is important to note that after this data release there isn't any further news events of note until next month so BTC no planned interference from data releases.

As we go into the data release volatility on the LTF is common and so maybe we'll see a break of this painful trend bitcoin has been stuck in since the sell-off event. With that in mind here are some entry ideas for longs and shorts:

Long:

- The safest option/ highest probability would be a breakout from the bearish downtrend, a retest as new support and begin the move up back towards RANGE HIGH.

- A sweep of the green bullish OB zone with a tag of the lower bearish trend line. A good R:R IMO with the first point of interest being the LOCAL RESISTANCE/ bearish trend high.

Short:

- The bearish scenario would be a loss of the 91K support level that has held for the last 10 weeks in a row and is the daily range low. If price accepts under that level things could get ugly as there is no support until 85K.
Nota
I've noticed a lot of USDC being minted at the USDC treasury this morning ( several 100m mints), could be anticipating something on the CPI data release?
Nota
PREVIOUS: 2.9%
FORECAST: 2.9%
ACTUAL: 3.0%

Hotter than forecast and the next cut shifts from September to December. The market initially sees this as bearish, could be a bear trap or the start of a bigger move? We will see...
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
Full recovery from the hotter than expected CPI, bounced from trend bottom to top.

Local resistance hit after triggering one of the long entry conditions.
Nota
Back to downtrend channel midpoint after rejecting from the upper trendline.

Ideally the bulls push on from here now that CPI volatility is over.
Nota
Trumps tariff plans are put on hold until April 1st. This should help risk on assets in the meantime and with CPI out of the way I should hope to see BTC regain some strength here.
Nota
Retesting the diagonal trend resistance & local resistance.
Nota
BTC breaking out with decent strength, so far so good.
Nota
4H 200 EMA being test @ just under 99K, this is the big hurdle for bitcoin.

Penafian

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