Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil? Thank you Mr. Musk..
If you view my last published chart you can get a fairly clear view of the sideways consolidation that I'm expecting to continue in the coming weeks, in a 45.6-50.4 range, the main trading meat being 46.81-49.18. This range is based on major Supply and Demand (2009 Rally) levels during what I consider Fair Value oil prior to the US initiating QE following the 2008 financial crisis. Oil prices have swung 'around' this range for the past 2 years and I've been (im)patiently waiting for extended consolidation in this range around it's long term critical midpoint of 48 in hopes to see a repeat performance of the July 2015 swing around 48 and then 10 dollar drop down to 38.X; and it appears that this may be culminating.
Tim Cook has stated that the electronic transportation is not the future, it is here. Elon Musk is working towards production of 10,000 Model 3's per week by the end of 2018, his more affordable version of the Model S. Lets face it, OPEC has not come through and the battle for market share will likely continue in the years to come and we've seen that the 50 dollar level is again contending for a supply/selling level for at least the mid term and I can't help but wonder whether 2018 will be the year of 38-48 dollar oil?
This is a risky entry as we saw an unexpected monster rally on Friday, although still within my sideways range and just breaching the supply/selling zone on the October contract. This chart is a bit unorthodox for me using channel lines and mainly looking at previous cluster/range levels and channel lines vs, my typical supply/demand inflections which I am a firm believer in. You can zoom out or scroll left to get a better view of the overall ranges and structures that I am looking for prices to repeat.
SL is difficult on this, I have a nice buffer built following my stagger chart, see "Oil - Possible Sideways Range' and so am willing to keep a bit deeper stop than what typically risk management would call for as I am continually using smaller staggers into and out of my larger position move, which has proven very beneficial in increasing overall ticks in the position trade.
I will describe in subsequent updates why the 47.04 -38.01 levels are pertinent to 2009. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
The Trade:
Short Entry: Active: 48.8-49.6
TP1 or Average Down Level: 41.00
TP2: 38.00-39.00
Good trading all!
Tim Cook has stated that the electronic transportation is not the future, it is here. Elon Musk is working towards production of 10,000 Model 3's per week by the end of 2018, his more affordable version of the Model S. Lets face it, OPEC has not come through and the battle for market share will likely continue in the years to come and we've seen that the 50 dollar level is again contending for a supply/selling level for at least the mid term and I can't help but wonder whether 2018 will be the year of 38-48 dollar oil?
This is a risky entry as we saw an unexpected monster rally on Friday, although still within my sideways range and just breaching the supply/selling zone on the October contract. This chart is a bit unorthodox for me using channel lines and mainly looking at previous cluster/range levels and channel lines vs, my typical supply/demand inflections which I am a firm believer in. You can zoom out or scroll left to get a better view of the overall ranges and structures that I am looking for prices to repeat.
SL is difficult on this, I have a nice buffer built following my stagger chart, see "Oil - Possible Sideways Range' and so am willing to keep a bit deeper stop than what typically risk management would call for as I am continually using smaller staggers into and out of my larger position move, which has proven very beneficial in increasing overall ticks in the position trade.
I will describe in subsequent updates why the 47.04 -38.01 levels are pertinent to 2009. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
The Trade:
Short Entry: Active: 48.8-49.6
TP1 or Average Down Level: 41.00
TP2: 38.00-39.00
Good trading all!
Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai:
Closing this out as it's peeked out a bit too far. I encourage you to continue watching the Oil - Possible sideways range I published, shown here as I believe prices may travel the majority of the entire range again; if... prices break down over the next trading week.
www.tradingview.com/...ible-Sideways-Range/