Light Crude short trade update - stay in position
I posted a crude oil set-up as one of my first few posts on tradingview as when in the low-$70s Crude was showing significant bearish RSI divergence and was clearly topping out a primary (or whatever scale) wave 3 up and would be correcting to create wave 4 with an ABC.
At that time I didn't post using the Nymex light crude CL1! chart (despite my own analysis having been done on the Nymex chart - my own paper trade (unpublished) shorted crude at $74.17 on the 4th of July). The wave formation on this commodity and the previous one I posted are quite different.
At this stage I believe we are only half-way through a zig-zag correction. What we know:
- There has been a 5-wave correction,
- This correction was followed by a smaller abc correction,
- All 3 abc waves seem to be present,
- If it was wave c - it has the required 5 waves of a wave c,
- Following the abc correction the price has already exceeded the wave (v) / (A) extreme - pointing to further correction needed,
- This appears to be followed by the formation of wave i and ii down.
These together seem to suggest that we have started wave 3 (iii) in a 5 wave wave (C) move downwards. The green box denotes where I would close this short (bear in ind that wave 5 of 5 tends to be extended in commodities) as a conservative estimate based on a 1:1 extension of wave (A) (extended from both the wave b and c extreme to get a range) as well as the 1.618 extension of wave i down. I will seek out a platform on which to trade this commodity due to this set-up. Because I am a little late, I would enter on a break below wave i ($66.92 low) down to catch wave iii, iv, and v down).
While I use different wave degrees I use them mostly to just denote smaller, larger scales, and sub-waves. I am not trying to be accurate with my wave degrees. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental anaysis.
At that time I didn't post using the Nymex light crude CL1! chart (despite my own analysis having been done on the Nymex chart - my own paper trade (unpublished) shorted crude at $74.17 on the 4th of July). The wave formation on this commodity and the previous one I posted are quite different.
At this stage I believe we are only half-way through a zig-zag correction. What we know:
- There has been a 5-wave correction,
- This correction was followed by a smaller abc correction,
- All 3 abc waves seem to be present,
- If it was wave c - it has the required 5 waves of a wave c,
- Following the abc correction the price has already exceeded the wave (v) / (A) extreme - pointing to further correction needed,
- This appears to be followed by the formation of wave i and ii down.
These together seem to suggest that we have started wave 3 (iii) in a 5 wave wave (C) move downwards. The green box denotes where I would close this short (bear in ind that wave 5 of 5 tends to be extended in commodities) as a conservative estimate based on a 1:1 extension of wave (A) (extended from both the wave b and c extreme to get a range) as well as the 1.618 extension of wave i down. I will seek out a platform on which to trade this commodity due to this set-up. Because I am a little late, I would enter on a break below wave i ($66.92 low) down to catch wave iii, iv, and v down).
While I use different wave degrees I use them mostly to just denote smaller, larger scales, and sub-waves. I am not trying to be accurate with my wave degrees. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental anaysis.
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Close at $65 (I wasn't trading Crude - just following as my platform will only offer it tomorrow (I will look to go long)). Five impulse waves down have completed in wave C. The 1:1 extension wasn't met but crude oil has quite a tendency for shorted wave Cs - that's life . Wave 3 is not the shortest, wave 4 retraced well into wave 1 territory, so it could be termed a wave failure. I would guess that this wave failure hints at some underlying bullish pressure, so watch out at the pumps people.Nota
*shortened* wave Cs
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.