COP - Feb.'18 Exp. Put Vertical Debit Spread

28 Dis 2017

Trade details:
57.5/50 Put Vertical Debit Spread @ $3.01
Prob. of Max Profit = 10.86%
Prob. of Max Loss = 34.02%
Break-even @ $54.49
50 D.T.E.

Trade plan:
Entry by overbought status + indication of correction/mean reversion analysis.
Expecting pullback to moving average (VWMA) before earnings report in Feb.'18 for profit on weakening uptrend as seen in both Daily + Weekly charts.
Expecting to take quick profit at $53.70 level + will re-establish position if quick profit is possible.
Expecting to hold spread through earnings + allow spread to expire worthless if reversal is strong.
Adjustment will be made if the position goes strongly opposite past $56.40 resistance level.

4 Jan 2018

Nota

Adjustment:
Due to break out of expected range early in trade.
55/48 Put Vertical Credit @ 0.90
Converted COP Vertical Debit into COP Unbalanced Put Condor

New position:
Adjustment into 57.5/55/50/48 Unbalanced Put Condor Debit Spread @ $2.11 (0.90)
29% reduction in Max Loss.

Expecting to reduce loss even further IF price stays between $57.5 and $48 (possible profit IF price drifts between $55 and $50 by expiration).