DAX:recession and 50% decline next 12-24 months (NEW)

31 Mac 2020

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DAX:recession and 50% decline next 12-24 months

Ok guys, let's review DAX 3weeks/candle chart. this is
more a of long-range forecast based on technicals and fundies.
on technicals I don't see any upside from here, best case
scenario is gap fill then the selling will resume.

Over next 12-24 months I expect yet another 50% decline
from current levels (10 000 points). My target is 5 000 DAX.

DAX 3weekly chart long-range forecast is it possible that we
drop another 50% from here???

absolutely. current global events already triggered recession,
EZ was already in full-scale recession before corona, corona
will accelerate things now.

Overall, we got a perfect storm now in global stocks, here's why:

-Coronavirus long-term impact on global businesses
-Airline routes shut down and won't be restored any time soon
-Entire countries on lockdown now - including Italy
-USOIL crash after OPEC no-deal (I also called this in advance)
-FED can't do much, cause there's not much room to cut rates
-Interest rates remained too low for too long
-So there's not enough space for FED to cut now

-Some other factors that can still produce shock/pain
going forward
-Collapse of DeutscheBank - they got a whopping book of
40 TRLN USD of derivatives exposure
-So no doubt about that - you will hear more news about DB
very soon
-Ugly Elections in US 2020

All-in-all, pretty scary outlook going forward.

Now, let's review the chart DAX weekly:

We had 4 significant declines in the last 20 years:

1)Tech bubble decline 70% from HIGH/LOW
2)07-08 decline was 60% HIGH/LOW
3)recent declines 25%/30% HIGH/LOW
4)Current decline already surpassed 25%
mark from HIGH/LOW

So what does that mean? Likely we get a 60/70% decline
in 2020-2021 now. Target is 5 000 points for DAX
based on the weekly chart and velocity of previous
bear markets.

good luck, traders.