2024-07-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - #dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes just strongly green. No deeper analysis needed. Support held everywhere and markets just melted again. My top call was as moronic as can be. Markets humble you quickly. Obviously I was not humbled enough so far. Does not change my mind about this peak bubble behavior at the end of this trend and we correct/crash into year end.
Commodities - Gold inside a triangle and it’s important for bears to stay below 2390 or very likely breakout above again, shorts preferred for trade back to below 2375.
Oil got the expected bounce a bit later but still there. My target was 83/84 and high was 82.65. I expect some more tries by the bulls but should stay below 84 before more down.
Bitcoin - Bulls got higher than expected but bears did a nice reversal a bit below the daily ema. Market behaves nicely. Good chance we go down to the lows from here at 57200.
dax
comment: Strong day by the bulls in a very tight channel. Bulls need to get above 18650 again to test 18800. Bears want a deep pullback like on Monday. It’s a big triangle with one giant bear trend line and multiple bull trend lines below. Market will have a couple more days inside the range before a big breakout. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema so excuse my short analysis. Market is in balance inside given range.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18380 - 18800
bull case: Perfect double bottom 18370 for the bulls and a strong move for 250+ points. Bulls expect follow through tomorrow and want to reach 18800 again.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears argue for a retest 18600 but they would need a very strong reversal around 18600 and that is not probable. If bulls continue to buy strongly, bears will probably step aside until 18760 and try shorting higher again.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
overall market comment
Indexes just strongly green. No deeper analysis needed. Support held everywhere and markets just melted again. My top call was as moronic as can be. Markets humble you quickly. Obviously I was not humbled enough so far. Does not change my mind about this peak bubble behavior at the end of this trend and we correct/crash into year end.
Commodities - Gold inside a triangle and it’s important for bears to stay below 2390 or very likely breakout above again, shorts preferred for trade back to below 2375.
Oil got the expected bounce a bit later but still there. My target was 83/84 and high was 82.65. I expect some more tries by the bulls but should stay below 84 before more down.
Bitcoin - Bulls got higher than expected but bears did a nice reversal a bit below the daily ema. Market behaves nicely. Good chance we go down to the lows from here at 57200.
dax
comment: Strong day by the bulls in a very tight channel. Bulls need to get above 18650 again to test 18800. Bears want a deep pullback like on Monday. It’s a big triangle with one giant bear trend line and multiple bull trend lines below. Market will have a couple more days inside the range before a big breakout. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema so excuse my short analysis. Market is in balance inside given range.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18380 - 18800
bull case: Perfect double bottom 18370 for the bulls and a strong move for 250+ points. Bulls expect follow through tomorrow and want to reach 18800 again.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears argue for a retest 18600 but they would need a very strong reversal around 18600 and that is not probable. If bulls continue to buy strongly, bears will probably step aside until 18760 and try shorting higher again.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
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