$DIA due for leg down to complete expanding triangle correction

24 Nov 2020

DIA looks to be due to begin leg 4 down of an expanding triangle corrective pattern following a 5 wave impulse up from the March lows to August. Leg down should fill some gaps on the daily. Alternatively, if DIA breaks through the top of its channel, then we're in an extended 1st wave, and all bets are off. The channel has held since 2008, however, so I believe that count is less likely.

4 Dis 2020

Nota

This idea getting a little long in the tooth, but remains valid. DIA still hugging the expanding triangle upper line, showing some indecision. If we reject lower, I think it goes fast and hard.

Other indicators show general market indecision at the moment about whether to continue rotation into value, or to flee back into growth. DIA and &IWM both approaching a death cross in the MCAD. Today's close will be extremely informative.

15 Dis 2020

Nota

This idea is still very much alive. I'm in some SDOW waiting on this correction. Ascending wedge, within a bullhorn, within a bullhorn, challenging the top of a 13 year old channel, with declining volume and bearish divergence in the MCAD and RSI. This is SCREAMING reversal to me.

15 Dis 2020

Nota

Updated EW count shows primary wave 5 in range between inverse 1. 236 and 1.618 of wave 4. Once wave 5 tops, look for a retrace Cycle wave II back to the revised target area near the bottom of the channel in the range of 0.5 -0.854 Cycle Wave I. This fits with my general thesis of one more significant deflationary shock before inflation takes hold.

21 Dis 2020

Nota

DIA has fallen out of its ascending wedge. We may get a backtest, but look out below. First stop, open gap around $287.