POTUS Election Chart
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The point?
Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections.
George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected.
Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their principal residences.
George Bush Jr had the worst performing stock market over 8 years with almost a zero return.
Obama's term picked up the mess from the Clinton's leveraging the system and Bush deleveraging the system. Everyone blames everyone but not many really understand what happened. No one wants to believe the facts and points to facts that don't matter. What matters is regulatory policy and tax law. It wasn't "greedy people abusing the system", it was a "poorly leveraged system".
What do we want next? What will we get next?
IF history is any guide, we are in the equivalent of the 1980's now with a decent comparison to the time period from 1984-1987 at the moment after coming out of a 16 year-sideways grind (inflation adjusted). We have technology still taking off in the form of EV's, 5G, AI, and all sorts of infrastructure spending ahead, hopefully mass transit, high speed rail and hyper-loops (underground boring of tunnels).
I'd suggest that Trump is doing his best at trying to push forth what Reagan's economic plans were: strong defense, deficit spend, tax rate cuts, stimulate investment, bring capital home, while using force all over the world (Panama, Grenada, Libya, Nicaragua, etc.).
Well - the point I want to make here is that the primaries are just about a year away and there will be mudslinging and bashing going on for the better part of the next year and that's when stock markets rock back and forth.
Let's stay tuned with what's going on so we don't go too crazy:
1. Government shut-down shot down the momentum in the economic growth prospects at year end 2018.
2. Boeing 737 Max8 instills fear in passengers and the most efficient airplane ever built is grounded, stunting spending, jobs, profits, investment and casted doubt on a major institution and the ability of the Gov't to oversee safe airplanes.
3. Massive growth in Electric Vehicles is causing a steady decline in demand for gas & diesel vehicles with huge repercussions long term for the whole industry and related industries.
4. Upheaval in trade talks in the attempt to level out the playing field causing a massive rift in communications between countries.
5. Tensions from nuclear development, threats to world peace from certain dictators shooting off rockets last year created worldwide concern about the safety of the all of us.
6. Climate change worries are escalating as storms, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, cyclones, and earthquakes are shaking everyone to their core and fearing for the future of our population.
7. Mass migration from Syria to Europe and South America/Central America to the USA is putting severe pressure on countries' ability to handle the influx and care for, feed and place everyone in homes and jobs.
8. Mass frustration over deficit spending in almost every country is forcing Central Banks to keep rates near zero to stimulate demand and has allowed huge deficits to accumulate that are virtually impossible to pay off, but can be carried ONLY at low rates.
I'm sure there are plenty more points to make, but I'm going to stop here and add more later.
I look forward to your comments, quips and questions.
All the best,
Tim West
May 31, 2019. 1:35PM EST
Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections.
George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected.
Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their principal residences.
George Bush Jr had the worst performing stock market over 8 years with almost a zero return.
Obama's term picked up the mess from the Clinton's leveraging the system and Bush deleveraging the system. Everyone blames everyone but not many really understand what happened. No one wants to believe the facts and points to facts that don't matter. What matters is regulatory policy and tax law. It wasn't "greedy people abusing the system", it was a "poorly leveraged system".
What do we want next? What will we get next?
IF history is any guide, we are in the equivalent of the 1980's now with a decent comparison to the time period from 1984-1987 at the moment after coming out of a 16 year-sideways grind (inflation adjusted). We have technology still taking off in the form of EV's, 5G, AI, and all sorts of infrastructure spending ahead, hopefully mass transit, high speed rail and hyper-loops (underground boring of tunnels).
I'd suggest that Trump is doing his best at trying to push forth what Reagan's economic plans were: strong defense, deficit spend, tax rate cuts, stimulate investment, bring capital home, while using force all over the world (Panama, Grenada, Libya, Nicaragua, etc.).
Well - the point I want to make here is that the primaries are just about a year away and there will be mudslinging and bashing going on for the better part of the next year and that's when stock markets rock back and forth.
Let's stay tuned with what's going on so we don't go too crazy:
1. Government shut-down shot down the momentum in the economic growth prospects at year end 2018.
2. Boeing 737 Max8 instills fear in passengers and the most efficient airplane ever built is grounded, stunting spending, jobs, profits, investment and casted doubt on a major institution and the ability of the Gov't to oversee safe airplanes.
3. Massive growth in Electric Vehicles is causing a steady decline in demand for gas & diesel vehicles with huge repercussions long term for the whole industry and related industries.
4. Upheaval in trade talks in the attempt to level out the playing field causing a massive rift in communications between countries.
5. Tensions from nuclear development, threats to world peace from certain dictators shooting off rockets last year created worldwide concern about the safety of the all of us.
6. Climate change worries are escalating as storms, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, cyclones, and earthquakes are shaking everyone to their core and fearing for the future of our population.
7. Mass migration from Syria to Europe and South America/Central America to the USA is putting severe pressure on countries' ability to handle the influx and care for, feed and place everyone in homes and jobs.
8. Mass frustration over deficit spending in almost every country is forcing Central Banks to keep rates near zero to stimulate demand and has allowed huge deficits to accumulate that are virtually impossible to pay off, but can be carried ONLY at low rates.
I'm sure there are plenty more points to make, but I'm going to stop here and add more later.
I look forward to your comments, quips and questions.
All the best,
Tim West
May 31, 2019. 1:35PM EST
Nota
The end of Carter's term was a lot like the end of Obama's term... and the price action is similar too.
It's not the EXACT election date but the date that it seemed logical that one side would win. Also, shifting the copy of the 1980 rally to put the rallies together from the tax cuts.
Nota
This is the correct link.
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