It's cold in the US and EU 🥶! 1 year covid crash anniversary.
The market prices info in a few days or weeks before it happens (not surprises obviously - only politicians trade those see Nancy Pelosi and Tesla for reference, as well as Hilary Clinton making 10 million percent or something on cattle futures making her the greatest trader of all time).
If there is no advantage to predicting things when they are being talked about by decision makers, 10 days before they are announced, we have to predict it even earlier! Before the clueless decision makers even talk about it.
We speculate on what speculators are going to speculate in the future.
So, obviously this MAY happen.
Last time there was a covid surge everything dropped to the ground 📉.
And so I'm not sure how viruses work, well no one knows honestly, lots of ignorant journalists THINK they do but they know the least of them all.
But what I saw is that states and countries in the north or far south (Argentina etc) generally had more deaths than those closer to the equator.
What is happening is that since the Biden inauguration - just stating a fact, not speculating on why this is the case chill - the US & EU have relaxed their covid measures.
And it is getting so cold, all of a sudden, it's hard for bodies to adapt, plus colder places have more deaths.
And funny thing is the states that took less restrictive measures, and who for now have less deaths than surrounding states with economic shutdown, are located in areas that are going to get cold 🌨️🌨️🌨️.
So what may happen is this:
1- The cold might lead to a spike in deaths
2- Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and more, will get hit hard, and people that "take covid seriously" and paranoid people will tell them "told you so" and push for an economic shutdown, Biden has already signed dozens of executive orders so he might sign a few others what difference does it make at that point?
3- France that said "ok for now we are not restricting your liberties more, restaurants might re-open" will now say "hey it's getting worse so let's do like we did last year", the UK that already got hit hard with "their" variant (less severe BUT more contagious) will get hit even harder and so it will go into complete panic mode, spread fear to Europe and the US, lots of decisions will be taken in hindsight AFTER the worse is over (which will confirm in their eyes the measures are efficient 🤦♂️)
4- Markets will crash
5- Typical confirmation bias & anchoring bias & neglect of probability & oversimplification tendency & all the trading bias: If clueless politicians keep taking hindsight decisions AFTER cases & death waves it will always look like it was efficient and stopped the spread, good luck to the 150+ IQ top scientists explaining them that, way too subtle for the average voter to understand, so you already know this will be the dogma and become a recurring thing.
Since I mentioned biases, this is the list 😀:
Taken from here: magellangroup.com.au/insights/10-cognitive-biases-that-can-lead-to-investment-mistakes/
Good article
I'm already short Bitcoin, and I'm getting ready to exit my Tech100 long if things go south.
If there is no advantage to predicting things when they are being talked about by decision makers, 10 days before they are announced, we have to predict it even earlier! Before the clueless decision makers even talk about it.
We speculate on what speculators are going to speculate in the future.
So, obviously this MAY happen.
Last time there was a covid surge everything dropped to the ground 📉.
And so I'm not sure how viruses work, well no one knows honestly, lots of ignorant journalists THINK they do but they know the least of them all.
But what I saw is that states and countries in the north or far south (Argentina etc) generally had more deaths than those closer to the equator.
What is happening is that since the Biden inauguration - just stating a fact, not speculating on why this is the case chill - the US & EU have relaxed their covid measures.
And it is getting so cold, all of a sudden, it's hard for bodies to adapt, plus colder places have more deaths.
And funny thing is the states that took less restrictive measures, and who for now have less deaths than surrounding states with economic shutdown, are located in areas that are going to get cold 🌨️🌨️🌨️.
So what may happen is this:
1- The cold might lead to a spike in deaths
2- Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and more, will get hit hard, and people that "take covid seriously" and paranoid people will tell them "told you so" and push for an economic shutdown, Biden has already signed dozens of executive orders so he might sign a few others what difference does it make at that point?
3- France that said "ok for now we are not restricting your liberties more, restaurants might re-open" will now say "hey it's getting worse so let's do like we did last year", the UK that already got hit hard with "their" variant (less severe BUT more contagious) will get hit even harder and so it will go into complete panic mode, spread fear to Europe and the US, lots of decisions will be taken in hindsight AFTER the worse is over (which will confirm in their eyes the measures are efficient 🤦♂️)
4- Markets will crash
5- Typical confirmation bias & anchoring bias & neglect of probability & oversimplification tendency & all the trading bias: If clueless politicians keep taking hindsight decisions AFTER cases & death waves it will always look like it was efficient and stopped the spread, good luck to the 150+ IQ top scientists explaining them that, way too subtle for the average voter to understand, so you already know this will be the dogma and become a recurring thing.
Since I mentioned biases, this is the list 😀:
Taken from here: magellangroup.com.au/insights/10-cognitive-biases-that-can-lead-to-investment-mistakes/
Good article
I'm already short Bitcoin, and I'm getting ready to exit my Tech100 long if things go south.
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