Indeks Mata Wang Dolar A.S.Singkat
DXY reversal, Bullish for BTC, but 50 day chop is likely
Good Sunday, dear friend! I'm scribbling down some ideas I had. It's good to be back home after a week on a job project. TradingView on a phone is awesome, but I definitely prefer a bigger screen.
The chart was not as clean as I wished, but it just tells some history with the correlations between DXY and BTC. For instance:
Q4 2022 - DXY tops (BTC bottoms).
Trend reversal for DXY (BTC corrects ABC after W1 after bear market).
DXY declines to a WCL, BTC soars from 25k to 73k.
In the meantime, as BTC soared, DXY also inclined, which led to an extended correction of 7.5 months. DXY rolled over in June 2025, and there was a 60-day lag before BTC felt the boost from the DXY decline.
This leads us to today. DXY and BTC have gone up together. I believe the last leg up is a consequence of the June - September decline of DXY, and BTC went up with DXY, and BTC is now left to feel the consequences of the DXY upturn. Given DXY (most likely) topped 11 days ago, we might chop for 50 more days before BTC resumes upward.
In the last WCLs, DXY retraces a minimum to 0.786. In this case, the trendline suggests a March timeframe for a low in DXY. History suggests the BTC local top is in when DXY bottoms, or is soon to top in about 2 months.
The chart was not as clean as I wished, but it just tells some history with the correlations between DXY and BTC. For instance:
Q4 2022 - DXY tops (BTC bottoms).
Trend reversal for DXY (BTC corrects ABC after W1 after bear market).
DXY declines to a WCL, BTC soars from 25k to 73k.
In the meantime, as BTC soared, DXY also inclined, which led to an extended correction of 7.5 months. DXY rolled over in June 2025, and there was a 60-day lag before BTC felt the boost from the DXY decline.
This leads us to today. DXY and BTC have gone up together. I believe the last leg up is a consequence of the June - September decline of DXY, and BTC went up with DXY, and BTC is now left to feel the consequences of the DXY upturn. Given DXY (most likely) topped 11 days ago, we might chop for 50 more days before BTC resumes upward.
In the last WCLs, DXY retraces a minimum to 0.786. In this case, the trendline suggests a March timeframe for a low in DXY. History suggests the BTC local top is in when DXY bottoms, or is soon to top in about 2 months.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.