Another 48h - Daily High On Monday Below Friday's In The DXY

2024/12/16
Another 48h - Daily High On Monday Below Friday's In The DXY
“no big price action on monday before the fed rate cut on wednesday!
will our small fine uptrend channel hold until then? and after that too?”



Two days before this year's final interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve, the record rally on the IXIC continued today, on Monday, the 16th December, 2024. While the technology stocks gathered there were once again favored, investors continued to avoid the standard stocks in the DJI . With a discount of -0.25% to 43,717.48 points, the DJI has now recorded its eighth day of losses in a row. The market-wide SP500, on the other hand, achieved an increase of +0.38% with 6,074.08 points. But the list of index winners was dominated once again by the NDX , which rose by +1.45% to 22,096.66 points. This meant it jumped over the 22,000 mark for the first time. Many seem convinced that the Fed will cut its interest rate again this week - me too - and are in a buying mood before Christmas and/or the turn of the year 2024/25. The majority of stock market investors assume that the central bank will help the stock market with another interest rate cut of -0.25%. Which is why the US Yield Curve is likely to continue to become cheaper and therefore appears to be a less fixed-interest alternative to the stock market, especially NDX . What still drives risk-taking traders and/or investors to buy the large individual stocks from the NDX . And this despite the fact that the US stock market is historically valued in oversold territory.

• Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
  
• Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?

That's what we wanted to learn last week, based on the price action in DXY . And we saw that the DXY actually closed at 106.945 points last Friday, December 13th, 2024 - even above the price action of 106.517 points. The price action is therefore again above the 1st annual year high, from 2024/04/16, at even 106.517 points. However, it is still below the terrain of the annual high of 2023, with 107.348 points, from 2023/10/03 and/or also the annual high of 2024, with 108.071 points, from 2024/11/22. Which is fundamentally bullish - as long as the price action can be defended by the US bulls above 106.517 points.

“The world order needs a major overhaul.”
George Soros

• Will the bulls defend the terrain above 106.517 points this week?
  
• Or will the price action fall back to the Dec`24 low at 105.420 points?

The low is crucial because it is more or less also the intraday high from November 6th, 2024 at 105.441 points when Trump was re-elected. So, in the case of higher price action, we can de facto argue that the DXY has been rising since Trump's re-election. And we will find out this week, if the bulls defend the recaptured price action of 106.517 points from last week, i.e. the 1st Annual Year High 2024, from 2024/04/16, whether the bullish trend in the DXY will continue? Which is what I tend to assume, even if the price action stays above 106.517 points!


The last price action of the DXY is today
on Monday, the 16th December 2024 at 106.853 points.
This calendar week, everything is in the shadow of the Fed's interest rate cut, which is expected by most. If the Fed doesn't lower its interest rates by -0.25%, would that be a big surprise on the financial market, which could trigger an earthquake? Nevertheless, at the beginning of the week, this Monday, the DXY tried to recapture last week's weekly high of 107.186 points, which was traded on Friday, December 13th, 2024. But had to admit defeat because the bears took command with 107.167 points. Since then, the DXY has been more or less standing still over the course of the day - but with slight losses. It is the calm before the storm and/or even before the FED decision on Wednesday, in just under 48 hours. And the basic technical current picture of the price action has not changed. Therefore once again, I still think that everything is more or less priced into the price action (fed rate cut of -0.25%). Perhaps this is also the reason for the last few days, even last week also, why the price action went up, after the trend was rather bearish for two weeks? That's why I expect that we are likely to experience price action in our small but fine upward trend channel in this calendar week. Important facts are that the uptrend started on Thursday, December 5th, 2024, and was confirmed the following Friday, December 6th, 2024, when the price action briefly broke down at the hour of the publication of the latest US unemployment rate. However, in the hour that followed, the price action returned back into our small, fine uptrend channel when the UNI Michigan consumer confidence was published. So that at the beginning of the week last week, the two-week downward trend line in the DXY at 106,214 points and/or 106.40 points was left behind by the US bulls. Which is why this small, fine uptrend channel is so important, because it confirms the breakout from the downtrend, as long as the price action within the uptrend channel is sent by the traders and/or investors. and that's what the price action is currently doing.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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