A stronger Dollar isn't out of the question
The Dollar index is something I've been grappling with for a while now. I bought into the narrative of a weaker dollar index particularly in light of the mass printing of money by the FED. Surely inflation must be a consequence of the monetary policies that we are seeing...?
It just makes so much sense that we see a cheaper Dollar. But the macro people disagree and their arguments are plausible and so i pay attention.
The biggest dilemma that i buy into with regards to a stronger Dollar index is the weaponisation of the US Dollar. Why would the US let their supremacy decline without a fight? Policy shock in the Dollar perhaps the biggest risk to countries around the world.
My base case is for a weaker Dollar over the next 5 years, however, its not out of the question for the Dollar to strengthen should policy shift.
The DeMarker indicator suggest that the Dollar Index should weaken over the short-term but lets see.
Very tricky....
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
It just makes so much sense that we see a cheaper Dollar. But the macro people disagree and their arguments are plausible and so i pay attention.
The biggest dilemma that i buy into with regards to a stronger Dollar index is the weaponisation of the US Dollar. Why would the US let their supremacy decline without a fight? Policy shock in the Dollar perhaps the biggest risk to countries around the world.
My base case is for a weaker Dollar over the next 5 years, however, its not out of the question for the Dollar to strengthen should policy shift.
The DeMarker indicator suggest that the Dollar Index should weaken over the short-term but lets see.
Very tricky....
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
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