$DXY Long back to March Lows

3 Ogo 2020

I don't expect much out of this dollar rally. I went short EURUSD starting the next day after the FOMC statement and continued to short through Friday. When the dollar has big selloffs into an FOMC date, usually there is a rebound shortly after.

I expect that we continue to drop into December after this backtest occurs. We seem to be repeating the 2008-2009 DXY "reset" extremely well.

3 Ogo 2020

Nota

Expectation is a retest of the March lows by mid August, and then a descent back down.

3 Ogo 2020

Nota

Compare the same sequence to 2008-2009

3 Ogo 2020

Nota

We are "re-aligning" where the "last opportunity to short" DXY was mid June, with the expectation of a temporary bottom/capitulation sometime at the end of July or early August. That is exactly what has happened here.

I do not expect this rebound to last longer than August 20.

23 Sep 2020

Nota

Well this idea is back in play. Eventually the 50 Day BBs are going to matter here and should be approached right when the March low is struck.