Another 48h - DXY Today With New Annual High 2024 Over 107

2024/11/14
Another 48h - DXY Today With New Annual High 2024 Over 107
“2024 low before and 2024 high afterwards trump's comeback“!
is there a connection there? price action politically driven?”



115.110 : 2001/09/11 - High Before 911 (2001)
114.778 : 2022/09/28 - Annual High 2022
112.200 : 2001/09/17 - Low After 911 (2001)
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.651 : 2024/11/14 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual High 2024
102.979 : 2020/03/23 - High While Coronavirus Outbreak
100.157 : 2024/09/27 - Annual Low 2024
099.578 : 2023/07/14 - Annual Low 2023
094.650 : 2020/03/06 - Low While Coronavirus Outbreak
094.629 : 2022/01/14 - Annual Low 2022
In the historical context, 2 scenarios are important, for the USA, for the DXY - the terrorist attacks in september 2001, and/or also the coronavirus outbreak in march 2023. Which is also more or less reflected in the price action in DXY . Why? Because since 2001, the USA has sent itself into the largest debt organization in human history by seeming to lose itself in fantastic foreign military adventures, as well as the local ones. And since the coronavirus outbreak, people have relied on green economic policy, even identity politics, under the guise of liberal democracy, which sooner or later led to politically self-organized stagflation. Which in our so-called west, most countries followed. That's why, surprisingly, at least for me, Trump was also re-elected. Of course, only the summarized tip of the iceberg - without losing track of any further details at this point. I actually believed in such a landslide success in 2022 - before the 2022 midterms! But 2024? Never! Nevertheless, if we want to understand the price action in DXY and learn something every day, we have to take this into account - regardless of our political preferences (whether Democrats or Republicans). Which is why I want to formulate the big picture at this point, which is sometimes forgotten and even ignored in day-to-day business, but from which one cannot run away; shouldn't run away - especially if we want to learn from history, even not to make the same mistakes today, to help to create a better und brighter future. Because an extraordinarily indebted national budget is and has always been the nucleus for major disruption in any society. And that's why we should not only take into account the annual highs and lows of this year 2024, and/or also the annual highs and lows of last year 2023 incl. the annual high and low of the last year before 2022. But rather also the highs and lows, of the week of the terrorist attacks, in September 2001. And/Or even also in March 2020 during the Coronavirus outbreak.

“Equilibrium applies best only to markets that deal with known quantities. But financial markets deal with quantities that are not only largely unknown but unknowable.”
George Soros

The US yield curve remains high US10Y and that continues to put pressure on the US stock market SP500 . While the DXY also tends to rise. But after we experienced the annual low 2024 at the end of September and have since risen straight towards the new annual high in 2024 - today. We should learn to relax a bit about the further price action in the DXY in the coming days, maybe even next week(s). What could possibly continue to be good for the US stock market? But it doesn't have to! But first things first. My colleague, who is now a friend from an analyst at another CFD online broker, even goes one step further - with regard to US Yields US10Y and/or US Stocks SP500 , and told me today: "Capital market interest rates in the USA continue to rise - and they will continue to rise until the Wall Street stock markets will react with a collapse! Because money is becoming more and more expensive, but the stock markets actually thrive on cheap liquidity (just like the liquidity asset Bitcoin, which is currently experiencing a surge)." I understand his line of argument - I don't contradict him at all. But I hope and assume that if the US yield curve comes down again, i.e. the important US10Y the DXY will continue to rise, but not as strongly - and so will the US stock market SP500 . Because as long as the US economy grows more or less out of US inflation; i.e. has higher US growth; as US Inflation and that incl. that the US unemployment rate remains relatively low (as it has been so far), the greatest danger for the future, an impending US recession, cannot be verified based on published data. And that´s why i prefere to stay relatively bullish for both the DXY and/or the US stock market SP500 - but with a US yield curve, even i.e. US10Y , that is also not getting cheaper. But which then acts as a brake - I would put it differently, an alternative conclusion based on the analysis of my broker analyst friend - and not except a crash. But as I said, I don't want to deny it. A sprawling US budget and the prospect of a possible rise in US inflation if Donald Trump starts trade war 2.0 with the introduction of tariffs seem to be sending US yields further upwards in the future - and therefore the US yield curve remains the big one counterpart of the stock market. US10Y vs. US10Y if you will. Which can basically only be a good thing for the DXY - because money is coming in the us financial market (in both ways). However, an ever-growing DXY is always also a protection against inflation, against foreign products, goods, and/or services. So it's someone else's problem, if you will - as is perhaps with our unity currency the euro in terms of economic policy and/or household deficits of differents countries, like france i.e.. And that's what Trump is aiming for with his tariffs - if we believe the rumors since he won the election. So, in the best of all worlds, from the perspective of the USA, it could also offset the high foreign debt even more cheaply, with a strong DXY .

106.651 : 2024/11/14 - last price action
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st Failed New Annual High 2024
106.130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd Failed New Annual High 2024
104.426 : 2024/08/02 - W Trend Reversal High
These are the most important price actions of DXY - for this week, next week. Because it is important that the breakout from the w trend reversal formation is confirmed for the time being. And that both on the price action and on the timeline. What? Yes! Look at the increase so far - from the annual low at the end of September 2024 to a new annual high in 2024 today, mid-November 2024. This is not normal - and sooner or later, more or less, from experience, the price action always occurs again comes back! How low? And until when? Of course I don't know that either.


*Will The Price Action Remain Above 104.447 Points?
*Will The Bulls Conquer 105 And More This Week?
*Will The Bulls Conquer Even 106 This Week?
These were and/or are still the 3 questions we should get answered this week - in order to learn something. What should we learn? With a price action above 104.447 points we would have a confirmed breakout from the w trend reversal formation! At least for a week. And with a price action of over 105 points, and/or even over 106 points, we would have even reached the second downward trend (over 105 points) and/or even the first downward trend (over 106 points) since this year's annual high in 2024, from April 2024. I didn't expect this at weekstart - but the bulls took over both downside trends. So I wouldn't do it again - yes, if I look at the price action of the last few days and weeks, we can almost assume that the DXY will come down a bit again - in the coming days and weeks. Which is why I once drew an aA) & bB) & cC) wave freehand, not methodically. And from now on I tend to expect a weaker DXY - at least for the next few days, and possibly the next week(s) too! But maybe I'm just only afraid of heights because everything in the last few days and weeks has gone much better than I could have imagined. Which is why I'm still fundamentally bearish for our European common currency EUR against the other exchange rates - and also continue to let our long USDJPY 4XSetUp run. Anyway, I would not like to withhold the following important price actions from you at this point, today, while new annual highs 2024, in the DXY precisely because of what has just been described.


104.570 : 2024/10/23 - a) 1st High, False Breakout Out Of Formation
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - aA) 1st Low, After False Breakout Out Of Formation
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - b) Higher High After 1st False Breakout
104.187 : 2024/11/07 - bB) Higher Low After 1st False Breakout
107.064 : 2024/11/14 - cC) New Annual High Of This Year 2024
106.651 : 2024/11/14 - last price action
So don't panic if you are now not only bullish, but also perhaps have long positions in DXY or other USD exchange rate pairs, as I have formulated for example on 2024/11/10, a new long USDJPY (with entry and/or stop). Because a fall in the DXY in the coming weeks, for example until the end of the month of 2024, would not call into question the fundamentally positive bullish picture of the DXY - as you can now see for yourself (hope you learned something with the help of my "Another 48h - DXY ..." posts). I'm not going to start questioning the DXY uptrend today - quite the opposite! It would even be better because the increase, both on the price axis and/or on the time axis, would not be as steep as it is currently - even today, with a new annual highs in 2024.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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