ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jul17-21)

17 Jul 2023

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 2.19 % after trading in a range of 121 pts.
  
• ES closed above the Aug 16th high
  
• First support now 9 ema
  
• First resistance is the 1.13 Fib extension
  
• 10 Year yield pulled back sharply from 4% closing at 3.81%
  
• All sectors closed green on the week led by XLY & XLY. The weakest sector was XLE closing up 0.82%.
  
• Earnings seasons has begun. Key reports due out this week form TSLA, NFLX, BAC, GS, TSM & CSX.
  
• Lighter week for econ data but the G7 meets all week.
  
• Buy the dip is back with ATH in play.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON G20 Meeting (All day)
  
• TUES CAN CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Prod & Fed's Barr speaks
  
• WED US Housing Starts, EIA Crude Inventories
  
• THUR US Initial Jobless Claims, US Existing Home Sales, US Philly Fed Bus Index
  
• FRI CAN Retail Sales
  

EARNINGS

• MON Nothing Notable
  
• TUES BAC, HAS, IBKR, LMT, MS, NVS, SCHS
  
• WED AA, ALLY, BKR, DFS, GS, HAL, IBM, KMI, LVS, NFLX, TSLA, UAL, USB
  
• THUR AAL, ABT, BX, CSX, DHI, FCX, GPC, JNJ, NEM, PPG, TSM
  
• FRI AXP, SLB
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES above the Aug 16th high
  
• EMAs are stacked.
  
• Price is now only 7.13% from ATH
  
• Potential earnings momentum from TSLA & NFLX
  
• TSLA and AAPL have huge whole number targets.
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  
• ES is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Potential rejection at 1.13 Fib extension resistance
  
• 9/21 emas may need to be retested.
  
• Potential shock event (War, banks, rate hikes)
  
• Potential negative reaction to TSLA & NFLX earnings
  
• The Dec 13th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
  
• Price is stretched for the weekly emas and 200 sma
  

18 Jul 2023

Nota

$ES_F Off to a strong start for the week. Held the daily 9 ema and has already hit the first upside target at the 1.13 Fib extension. Next upside target is 1.272 Fib X at 4700. Bullish bias continues unless price falls back below the Aug 16th high.

19 Jul 2023

Nota

$ES_F trading a little stonger than the NQ past few days. Likely due to some sector rotation out of XLK into the XLV, XLE & XLP. Uptrend is weakening a big and may need a pause. Expecting some profit taking in TSLA as it reaches 300.

20 Jul 2023

Nota

$ES_F TSLA tapped 299 and then sold off after earnings taking the market down with it. NFLX pulling things down as well. Price has found some support at the 1.13 Fib X after flushing to the 4H 21 ema. If the 1.13 Fib X cannot hold a move to the daily 9 ema is likely.