S&P weekly Analysis 2-23-25

Bear sell signal in the middle of the Trading Range and just above EMA. Many bulls will buy at the EMA, which has been support since November 23. However, context is good for a MTR. Market is at the top of a Spike and channel parabolic wedge. After wedge completion, expect Price to retest the start of the channel.

This Friday is month end, adding to potential end-of-week vol. Bears may sell here, but that would create a moment of clarity. Such moments get a pull-back 80% of the time. So better bearish trade would be to let the next weekly bar form for more information. Sell a PB after continuation.

The market is in a Trading Range, and in tight TRs, expect disappointment and for breakouts to fail. Look for 2-push moves to the extremes of the Range. Last week's bearish bar is strong enough to expect continuation, and if we get continuation, expect a PB or hesitation, and then another leg down.