Seeing some matching patterns here to put this together.
Up:
1) Going higher than 200 DMA will give bulls hope
2) 50% retrace from bottom lets people think we have finished this bear market
3) Now 80% odds for 50bps
4) Roughly 60 days would be in line + 20% return
5) Favoured seasonality for a Christmas rally
Then down:
6) Everyone forgot about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (now lowest since 1984!), energy issues in Europe (Russia will mess with gas again)
7) 50bps I think is unlikely so we will see 75bps. FOMC is Dec 13-14, so I will target there
8) We're still in a bear market and volume will top out for another downward move
9) Cramer + Tom Lee will call for 5100 at the top
---
Related:
- Bear market investment strategies book: amzn.to/3ULtZMd
- 20%+ rally would be in line with the past:
fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/BearMarketRallies_02_2010_V2LP.pdf
- Bear market rallies: forbes.com/sites/randywatts/2022/06/23/forbes-bear-market-rallies
- Strategic Petroleum reserves: eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
- Energy in Europe: graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/
---
Daily returns
Plan for 2020-2030
Up:
1) Going higher than 200 DMA will give bulls hope
2) 50% retrace from bottom lets people think we have finished this bear market
3) Now 80% odds for 50bps
4) Roughly 60 days would be in line + 20% return
5) Favoured seasonality for a Christmas rally
Then down:
6) Everyone forgot about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (now lowest since 1984!), energy issues in Europe (Russia will mess with gas again)
7) 50bps I think is unlikely so we will see 75bps. FOMC is Dec 13-14, so I will target there
8) We're still in a bear market and volume will top out for another downward move
9) Cramer + Tom Lee will call for 5100 at the top
---
Related:
- Bear market investment strategies book: amzn.to/3ULtZMd
- 20%+ rally would be in line with the past:
fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/BearMarketRallies_02_2010_V2LP.pdf
- Bear market rallies: forbes.com/sites/randywatts/2022/06/23/forbes-bear-market-rallies
- Strategic Petroleum reserves: eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
- Energy in Europe: graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/
---
Daily returns
Plan for 2020-2030
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.