Bullish fake-out on the e-mini

This is a followup to an earlier post on the e-mini and AMZN. You can see here that the e-mini put in a series of higher high's last week and was bid up off the 50% bullish level shown here after the sell-off on Friday. This puts on the appearance that the e-mini is setting up to retrace higher over the near-term. This was my earlier impression on AMZN. However, often with strong trends you will see fake-outs similar to this. Looking more closely at the chart, specifically the sequence of lows from 04/05, I'm thinking that the e-mini is in fact setting up for a run lower down to the 2531 level, and possibly the 2443 level. Considering that many large bellwether stocks are hovering just above multi-year lows where large stop orders are placed, i.e. XOM. It seems more likely that the market will run these stops and push the e-mini lower, rather than retrace higher.

Komen:

We can see that the e-mini has reached the retracement levels that I identified earlier. Based on the price behavior so far I would not recommend a short position at this point as its now looking like they may go ahead with the bullish extension.