The Next Bull Run Just May Outclass 2017 - Here's Why
Telah dikemas kini
This is probably my most bullish post to date. Take it with a grain of salt, because things can change on a dime in this market. However, some things are leading me to believe we may be about to see a bull run that surpasses the 2017 bubble, at least in terms of the amount of money that will enter the market (maybe not percentage gains, but that remains to be seen).
In my most recent ETHBTC analysis, I said that ETH was likely to break out of the downtrend it's been stuck in for nearly 2 years. It has done just that. I'm glad I added ETH and LTC to my long term portfolio recently at $107 and $32 respectively. So far, we haven't had a really GIANT move yet (only a measly 40-50% in USD value haha), but I think 1000+ % gains are unlikely to happen in this stage. We must first complete this bottoming formation, which means we could consolidate for a bit. The purple line provides pretty strong resistance in the near term, as I said in my last analysis.
Just take a look at this fractal in the ETHBTC chart (circled in green). So far, we are repeating exactly the same price action from two years ago: We broke down after testing the downtrend line and then subsequently formed a big double bottom that has taken us out of the downtrend and onwards to test the red trendline. Confirmation of this fractal will be if and when ETH surges past that red line (currently around 0.045). The weekly RSI has A LOT of room to grow, so this is certainly possible. The reason why I expect a much larger amount of capital to flow into the market is because the current version of the fractal is much larger in scale. It even matches perfectly in terms of Volume and RSI. A breakout could be powerful enough to send us all the way past the ATH on the first impulse, as it did during the last cycle.
Takeaways from this analysis:
1) ETH will likely make a new ATH if it surpasses the red trendline again, which means this time IT COULD ACTUALLY FLIP BITCOIN. Bitcoin dominance has been teetering on the edge of 50% for a while in a slow downtrend. This is something to watch out for.
2) If ETH breaks down below the recent lows, this idea will be invalidated and the bear market will extend another year at least. I think this is unlikely, based on the recently broken resistance.
3) This is not financial advice. This is pure speculation based on what I'm seeing in the charts. It does not have to play out this way.
Also a quick moment to brag on my some of my analyses from the last 3 months, which, if you go through my charts, has well over 50% accuracy:
I. Called the recent TRX run well in advance, including the buy in point AND the likely top.
2. Predicted the recent ETH and LTC breakouts.
3. Suggested that NANO would probably not go below the August 2018 bottom of $0.75, even if Bitcoin crashed to $3-4K (though it's starting to look a bit weak now).
4. Pointed out that Bitcoin broke two major diagonal resistances, so a breakout was looking increasingly likely.
5. Gave a very accurate buy and sell zone for GVT.
6. Nailed the bottom for EOS after suggesting a short down to 50K sats before looking for a bounce.
7. Bought NEO with an average fiat -> NEO price of $6, since I used my TRX profits for the trade.
8. Called the breakdown of XLM to the 2K sat area once 3500 broke.
9. Not crypto, but suggested to a friend to buy Cronos stock at $6. It is now above $20.
These are just some of my analytical successes. Hopefully I can continue to analyze with fairly good accuracy. I'm in this market for the long term. I am not selling at these levels, because it seems too risky to me. Of course we can head lower, but right now that doesn't seem likely. It would be a huge slap in the face for bulls though.
AGAIN, this is not financial advice, and I am not a professional. You chose what to do with your money.
-Victor Cobra
In my most recent ETHBTC analysis, I said that ETH was likely to break out of the downtrend it's been stuck in for nearly 2 years. It has done just that. I'm glad I added ETH and LTC to my long term portfolio recently at $107 and $32 respectively. So far, we haven't had a really GIANT move yet (only a measly 40-50% in USD value haha), but I think 1000+ % gains are unlikely to happen in this stage. We must first complete this bottoming formation, which means we could consolidate for a bit. The purple line provides pretty strong resistance in the near term, as I said in my last analysis.
Just take a look at this fractal in the ETHBTC chart (circled in green). So far, we are repeating exactly the same price action from two years ago: We broke down after testing the downtrend line and then subsequently formed a big double bottom that has taken us out of the downtrend and onwards to test the red trendline. Confirmation of this fractal will be if and when ETH surges past that red line (currently around 0.045). The weekly RSI has A LOT of room to grow, so this is certainly possible. The reason why I expect a much larger amount of capital to flow into the market is because the current version of the fractal is much larger in scale. It even matches perfectly in terms of Volume and RSI. A breakout could be powerful enough to send us all the way past the ATH on the first impulse, as it did during the last cycle.
Takeaways from this analysis:
1) ETH will likely make a new ATH if it surpasses the red trendline again, which means this time IT COULD ACTUALLY FLIP BITCOIN. Bitcoin dominance has been teetering on the edge of 50% for a while in a slow downtrend. This is something to watch out for.
2) If ETH breaks down below the recent lows, this idea will be invalidated and the bear market will extend another year at least. I think this is unlikely, based on the recently broken resistance.
3) This is not financial advice. This is pure speculation based on what I'm seeing in the charts. It does not have to play out this way.
Also a quick moment to brag on my some of my analyses from the last 3 months, which, if you go through my charts, has well over 50% accuracy:
I. Called the recent TRX run well in advance, including the buy in point AND the likely top.
2. Predicted the recent ETH and LTC breakouts.
3. Suggested that NANO would probably not go below the August 2018 bottom of $0.75, even if Bitcoin crashed to $3-4K (though it's starting to look a bit weak now).
4. Pointed out that Bitcoin broke two major diagonal resistances, so a breakout was looking increasingly likely.
5. Gave a very accurate buy and sell zone for GVT.
6. Nailed the bottom for EOS after suggesting a short down to 50K sats before looking for a bounce.
7. Bought NEO with an average fiat -> NEO price of $6, since I used my TRX profits for the trade.
8. Called the breakdown of XLM to the 2K sat area once 3500 broke.
9. Not crypto, but suggested to a friend to buy Cronos stock at $6. It is now above $20.
These are just some of my analytical successes. Hopefully I can continue to analyze with fairly good accuracy. I'm in this market for the long term. I am not selling at these levels, because it seems too risky to me. Of course we can head lower, but right now that doesn't seem likely. It would be a huge slap in the face for bulls though.
AGAIN, this is not financial advice, and I am not a professional. You chose what to do with your money.
-Victor Cobra
Nota
Still consolidating in the same range since I posted this chart yesterday. Remember, this idea is ONLY valid if we break the red line to the upside. We may fail at it first, as we did in 2017.Nota
If somehow this idea plays out, this means that an insane first impulse is possible - as I meantioned in the above analysis. This means that ETH could rise by 500% + in a mere 2 week timespan. This means USD prices of $700-$1500, depending on how Bitcoin is doing. I know this sounds ludicrous, but this is what would happen if this fractal has true merit. I would not trade off this crazy assumption, because it’s simply gambling. But...it would be fun to gloat if it ended up happening :)Nota
Here's a nice fractal comparison for you. Here is the 2016-2017 bottom: Nota
Here is the present day POTENTIAL bottom. As you can see, we may be about to break out of the 200EMA, just as we did in early 2017. Then we should see a rally to the red trendline and perhaps a test of the 200EMA as support before our explosive move upwards. The RSI profiles match nicely as well. Nota
The two major differences between 2017 and 2019 are 1) scale - the present day bottom has taken 2 months longer to form.
2) We've tested the red trendline twice already as resistance in 2019, whereas we only tested it as resistance once in 2017.
Interesting to note that the potential conclusion of the bottoming formation will occur at exactly the same time of year, if this plays out.
Nota
Since we've already tested the 200EMA twice in 2019, as well as the red resistance, it's possible we go straight up. I guess we'll see what happens. REMEMBER, this idea will be invalidated if we start to see extreme deviations from the pattern.Nota
It looks like bears have fought back with vengeance! They really can make a chart look horrible extremely quickly. There's not need for extreme panic yet, but it is concerning. However, it isn't surprising that Bitcoin found resistance near the main downtrend line from the bear market. I should have been paying more attention to that yesterday. Additionally, the bears made sure that we did NOT make a higher high on Binance (wicked to exactly the same high from December - 4198). This means bears are really trying to force the market down. Now is the time when we see if the bullish view really has any merit. Nota
If you look at what Bitcoin has done, you'll see that it has tested the broken triangle resistance as support. So far it has held. If it breaks, we'll probably have to test the low 3K area again and it just might not hold. A correction was needed, and it's better if it happens quickly, to test the market. The bulls need to show that they're really willing to buy here. Nota
Since we've already begun a bit of a retrace, it's possible we are instead HERE: Nota
This means something like the green is possible. Remember, this iteration of the fractal is much larger in scale, so it may take longer for this to play out: Nota
So we're indeed following the green scenario. The fractal is still in play. In order for it to continue to follow the fractal though, we'd need to bounce here or down in the 30000 area again and rally above the recent high. If we deviate from the pattern, this idea will be invalidated, and this bear market will likely last at least another year. Nota
The ultimate oscillator is close to a buy signal so we may indeed bounce here. The market is looking very precipitous at the moment. From here, I think we are either going to confirm the end of the bear market by making a higher high after bouncing back up with volume...or we are going to break to new lows and extend the bear market further. We will find out soon.Nota
The bulls did indeed fight back there. If we are to follow the fractal from 2017, we will probably continue to push higher and make that higher high at the red trendline. This would mean the high 43000 area is in the cards. However, if this rally fails to sustain with volume, we can test lower supports around 30000. As you know though, my bias has been recently that the bear market is over. Until we make a lower low and start seeing some different price action, this will be my opinion. 
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