Alt currencies / BTC ETF ( how low will they go ?)

24 Jul 2018

As you guys have probably noticed by now, Bitcoin is rallying and gathering fomo in anticipation of the ETF's, while alts are losing their value. This is because everyone is selling alts to ride BTC.
Very bad news for alts, but it's a cycle that has been happening over and over in relation to satoshi value.
Bear in mind that its using data from previous Bitcoin Bull run, and it's based on the concept that alt/btc ratio is cyclical. Values can change depending on how strong the holders are. But eventually, everyone cracks.

In this article, we will analyze this cycle, and try to determine how low alts can go. For this I will be posting several charts in the comments below.

ETHEREUM
I will start with ethereum, the king of alt currencies. As you can see, we still have a lot of room to dump, and the coming dump will be very severe and could cause capitulation, as alts have already dropped a lot. We are attempting to break the 0.0058 fibonacci line, and thus indicating a severe drop to 0.03 satoshis.

Since bitcoin is going up, USD value for Ethereum will remain unchanged, however people trading in sats will get hurt.


NEO


Neo has already broken the fibonacci line, and the drop is expected to be around 0.002 which is almost x2 x3 in drops


DASH


Dash is a really interesting case, as we have managed to hold 0.0035, but for the first time in ages, we broke it, so I take into consideration a previous all time lows for fibonacci retracements, and that leaves us with a target of 0.011 ish, which can really hurt holders


OMG


Omise Go, not an exception, is also in between massive fib lines, and a drop could occur to 0.0004 satoshis.


EOS


EOS is breaking the fib line as we speak, which is signalling a drop towards 0.0005 satoshis


LUNYR


Final one is Lunyr. Now why Lunyr? This coin is very old, and has respected the BTC/ALT ratio EVERYTIME. If you look at the previous drop, the chart looks exactly the same. A pump to all time high, then a dump towards 0.0002



Stay strong bros

24 Jul 2018

Nota

There might be a fake pump tonight or tomorrow, as alts have bled a lot and bitcoin seems to be stabilizing. I will take this opportunity to get out of my alt position

25 Jul 2018

Nota

This is pump that I'm talking about, once I see signs of weakness on alts, and strengh on btc, I'm selling my alts

25 Jul 2018

Nota

Sold my High Performance Blockchain position, planning on refilling lower

26 Jul 2018

Nota

Ok so my sell has been spot on. Now I NEED to refill however, because I sold at a loss, so I need to time my buy correctly. We should be going down a little bit more according to my technical analysis, however I'm monitoring carefully. I have managed to scalp 10-20 HPB coins for now, which isn't bad

26 Jul 2018

Nota

I'm really sensing a big drop soon. However it could very well be a trap, and the CME futures end tomorrow. How will this affect bitcoin is yet to be determined. This is why a close monitoring and a update would help. For now, I'm keeping in bitcoin, and set up a stop loss on HPB's price, so that in the worst case scenario, in case of a bull run, I end up with my initial coins.

27 Jul 2018

Nota

This is Bitcoin's chart :



Some fud going on + CME futures ending. I think it's going to be a bear trap using those two events. Anyways, supposing a continuation of the bull run ( which is a scenario I'm inclining towards ), the correction is healhty, and if you see the fib lines, traders are respecting it in accuracy. We should see a small bump before another drop, from there we will see if BTC continues its bull run or not. However, since this trade is to monitor actively what's going on, BTC is important as well.
The money that got out of BTC, went into USDT and not alts which is an indicator that the bullrun might not be over. We need to wait more to conclude.

Alts:
ETH:



Ethereum is continuingg its bounce upwards, but the bounce is very weak, and could still be a corrective wave before a dump. Thread carefully.

NEO :



I'm still waiting for a bounce, but it's so damn weak. I don't see this as the bottom yet

27 Jul 2018

Nota

High performance blockchain TA:

i63.tinypic.com/2libihl.jpg

Price expected to drop to 0.00022 sats, with a nice falling wedge

27 Jul 2018

Nota

BTC scenario :


We got our bounce, let's see if my scenario plays out and it drops to 7500 ish. It could get invalidated, but worth monitoring. What I am looking for here is signs of massive resistance at 8150. If I see a moment of weakness, this is a call to short or sell.

ETH:


The alts are dumping, a big daily red candle for ethereum and all other alts.

28 Jul 2018

Nota

Abnormally high volume for ETH on asian exchanges. Something is cooking. My bet is a dump

30 Jul 2018

Nota

Update :
BTC :


We have failed to break 8250, and now we are seeing weakness, that means my scenario is still in play. It will be interesting to see how low will this go. Also in an unregulated market there is still a possibility of an out of book play by whales and they could squeeze it up unexpectedly.

OMG :


We can see that the dump has resumed, however, the selling power is lower and we can spot a bullish divergence on the RSI chart. But it looks like it's going down, as planned.

30 Jul 2018

Nota

This is the NEO chart for reference. If we compare historical data, and suppose that the alt/BTC ratios are cyclical, which is a rule that has not be broken yet, one can assume that a probability of it happening again is high :




We are at the final stages of an alt dump using the BTC/Alt ratio.
Now is the time to average cost buys, since no one can determine the bottom with accuracy, but with an estimation. If you have x sum to buy, every time price hits a support, buy 20% of your sum etc..

31 Jul 2018

Nota

Dump resumes, this one is the last one and will hurt the most as you'll see traders despair stay strong :

1 Ogo 2018

Nota

Well I nailed Bitcoin's movement correctly, which means if all goes as I plan, alts can still go down.

To be monitored

2 Ogo 2018

Nota

BTC :


Bitcoin about to make a move upwards soon. We're touching the EMA, the fib and the end of a corrective Elliot Wave. TTM squeeze indicating a change of momentum soon, RSI is oversold.

Probability of a pump : HIGH


Alt coins:

ETH :


Hidden bullish divergence on the ethereum chart, and we"re near a very strong support. I think the alts will bounce with bitcoin this time

NEO :


HIdden bullish divergence aswell. We're far from the lowest support, however I think a pump is in play before the next dump.

OMG :


This one is in free fall, no divergence, I anticipate more dump. Coincides with some fundamental fud about investors dumping their coins.


Lunyr :


Lot of room to dump, however we can have a pump and dump soon