goldbug1
Panjang

ETH - Patience seems to be paying off Today!

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / Dolar
Another one of our long term holdings that we were adding to during the correction has broken out of the box. Now it's too early to confirm whether this is just a fake break or a true bullish move so we still need to be patient! October 23rd we noticed this nice consolidation after breaking the downward trend line and how it broke it and consolidated we felt rather confident the bottom had been reached with the strong movement (labeled 1) which looked similar to the BCH' move, and just like BCH' went into consolidation, so we decided to add to our position around the $300 level. Well today maybe we are getting the break out, and it's nice we are sitting on some cash to trade. I like this trade, but we need confirmation first. Remember the market overall has been rotational, and we do not want to get stuck in a bull trap. But that nice spike on the RSI has provided further confidence that maybe ETH' is getting ready to move higher. We need it to break the $310-$313 level which we have mentioned probably about a month ago as a critical level to hold. Note the last breakout it ran to $350 but quickly consolidated back. So we could see a similar setup for a trade. What I like about this RSI is it held for the most part during consolidation above the 40 level. Now notice we have similar lines on every RSI chart. By now most of you see how to use the RSI correctly in accordance with Constance Brown's trading method. But we still need confirmation.

This comes at the $313 level which has been on our radar since early September. A break of this level then I think we have a valid EW count that can provide some guidance. Please note this is a very early EW count but this is what I am looking for. Note this is a trade and there is plenty of money to be made once it's confirmed to not get anxious and pull the trigger. Now as I have spoken about before, I am not a buy here sell here stop here kinda guy. There are others that post those trades, it's not me, it's not my system. I rely on HMA's RSI's and resistance support levels during a trade, and I monitor it throughout. But many of you from the messages I receive are coming up with your own method of trading, and using many of these ideas and are finding success! This is critical to becoming a trader, but keep in mind investors still out perform most traders, and for good reason. But regardless, I like this trade setup.

If we do get a signal at $313 (as we already missed the consolidation breakout trade (dammit too busy writing articles)) then I am looking for resistance at the $350 level. Maybe a good point to exit or reduce the trade. Obviously the EW count will change as we move but it's a preliminary guide to what we might see.

As an investor I would probably add more above $315 and look to sell half around the $350-$375 area providing us some coins with an average of around $290! Or even sell off 3/4 the position like we did with LTC' when it had it's big run to 90. Ended up with free coins to add to the long term there ;). That's always the goal.

Anyways I like ETH' and BCH' to challenge BTC' for market share in the long term. So any chance I get I am adding or trying to gain more coins by trading.

For a comparison I found a nice similar pattern in October of 2016 ironically. Now it's not perfect but the trends are the same. So if history repeats we could be in for a nice ride!
Komen:
@goldbug1 i found your analysis really good esspecially your EW Counting! On your analysis on the graphik right site corner we have now exactly EW 5 with 370$! i read also another of your analyisis aout eth and you say that you need to now if we are in EW 3 after we hit or pass 417$ levels! Can you please update that? Nice work thank you i learn from you lots of technical stuff
Balas
Hey bug nailed it on DSH and BCH. Great work. I was wondering if you had an updated outlook, looks like eth ready for break out double bottom but just waiting on your knowledge.
Balas
Mr. @goldbug1, what dou you think? Seems indecisive ..

Balas
@goldbug1 hey goldbug, i've been following you for a while and wanted to thank you for your insights. i know you're bullish on ethereum but i wanted to ask what you thought of this: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/793jnb/is_ethbtc_due_for_a_major_crash_hint_probably/?st=j9fxq4o3&sh=5c4f1a6c
Balas
Mr. @goldbug1 I have asked this on the Sean Vengan post also, it seems that charts, TA, You, Dian and Sean agree. MarcP kind of agrees, he wrote that his ETH trade got "stop-loosed"...

My question: Is it probable to think that because of BTC volatility and somewhat insecure future (segwit2x) market will turn to other coins? Can this be driving ETH and other coins?

Because, just look at it, this BTC situation is bonkers, at least from the my standpoint. I'm waiting to go long BTC, all TA shows correction should happen, by common sense, after 2-3 ATH it should happen, and price keeps going up. So i think that I'm just going to go long ETH with part of my portfolio and wait to see what happens with BTC. Do people really beleive that they will make something from segwit2x? Getting same ammount og BTC and B2X coins? This is just to much noise and contradictiory info, and none the less, BTCEUR or BTCUSD keeps going up.
Balas
the master has spoken once again. thanks goldbug1!
+2 Balas
@sitosa, Thanks, let's see how it plays out. BTC could really ruin the part for us!!
Balas
MPFlowers goldbug1
@goldbug1, Bitcoing *did* ruin the party for us. It made this illogical run up today and everyone pulled their money out of ETH. What is your move on this? Do you get back in to ETH at the lower level presently or do you just stay out because you know when bitcoin finally retraces it's going to take ETH with it??
Balas
Lovely analysis... thanks!
+2 Balas
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