Ethereum - Overview of the Bull and Bear Scenarios Update 2

9 Feb 2019

Hi All! First of all, make sure to like this chart and hit follow to get updates.

Now straight to our updated analysis:

Sentiment: Cautiously bullish. The bulls needs to break above the top of the bear channel at $121 and hit $130 at least to confirm the bull trend. Otherwise, although less probable we would complete a similar move down to November 2018 (see charts)


Comments:
Yesterday night I pointed to a potential buy signal on both BTC and ETH after seeing several momentum bull crosses and 1H 2H 3H Bollinger squeezes which gave us as I called it a moderate leg up and break up which broke faster than expected past the top of the falling wedge(s). The initial leg reached $122 resistance or 50% Fib which is also the 1D top band. Typically, based on experience, we always always see a retrace that tests the 1D midband as support which is roughly at 61.8% Fib at $111.89-109.45 which would be a great buying opportunity.

Bulls: (in green + higher probability)
After breaking out past the top of the falling wedge signaling a bull reversal short-term, we should be able to buy the rumor rally and sell the Constantinople Hard Fork news event on February 27.
Buy/Support:
$103.15-102.80 - Bought 6% or more - HIT
$115-114
$111.89-109.45 - Buy 20-25% - ideal entry (For those who missed or want to add more)
Sell/Resistances:
$135-140 -Sell 25%
$160-170 - Sell 37.5%
$190-200 - Sell 37.5%
Stoploss: $107 or $106.50

Bears: (in red - low probability till March)
I will keep this simple as the bear scenario has been explained in our 3D Ethereum Tradingview Chart before. In summary, Ethereum is still contained in the bear channel with current top at $120 and still has a valid H&S with target $62-55 / $40. Finally, the 3D momentum bear cross and action is still similar to November 2018.

ETHUSD Similarities with November 2018: External chart, please check our telegram channel
ETHUSD 3D Chart Momentum Bear Cross Chart:

13 Feb 2019

Nota

Ethereum went briefly down yesterday through our red bearish path but found strong support at $118-117 and bounced back up to test the top resistance of the bear channel currently at $122.50-123 on Bitstamp or $126 on Bitfinex. Also the 2H 3H 4H momentum have all a bull cross pending due for the next 3 to 10 hours which would give us a nice leg up to $130 resistance once confirmed.
Bottom line is, the bulls are strong and I do expect a break out at the latest by tomorrow February 13th past that top resistance with or without a CBOE Futures Whipsaw move. ALTS will certainly follow.

ETHUSD Bear Bull Scenarios Chart:

16 Feb 2019

Nota

The momentum is looking bullish for the bulls here on both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Notice how the sellers have gotten exhausted and the selling and sideways have reduced greatly since yesterday. Also seeing 5 consecutive green bullish 6H candles on Ethereum within the bullish parallel channel I drew on yesterday's chart (see below). Once the bulls break past the top of the resistance at $123.20 and hit at least $126.50 Coinbase, then we should see the rally start. Also as it seems right now, the weekly close tomorrow should be in favor of the bulls.

That said this is Crypto and an unexpected washdown could happen, that's why I suggest moving the stoploss from $106.50 on Coinbase to $111 or even $118 instead just in case we squeeze the other way.

17 Feb 2019

Nota

Following up on our latest update on Ethereum, we officially broke out past the top of the symmetrical triangle at $123 and hit $126.60 which confirms the continuation of the rally towards at least $160-170 around the February Hard Fork (10 days from now roughly or less).

You may cautiously add/buy to your Ethreum and ALTS positions another 5-10% and wait. Remember to keep your average below the recommended stoploss if possible. ALTS should have their mini-ALTS season as well following Ethereum in its uptrend.

Stoploss: $118

19 Feb 2019

Nota

As we pointed yesterday, Ethereum's Constantinople Hard Fork is arriving way faster than expected around Monday February 25th which will most likely be a sell the news event. Based on the current angle and pace, we will most likely top somewhere near $190-200. The rally will likely unfold rather quickly and if we get some retracement they will be flashing rather quickly and our buys will need to be ready.

Currently, I have recommended for those who wish (see lower) to sell at least 10% at the strong $148-153 resistance. Meanwhile, we have been watching a mini-bearish-H&S (see chart below) that COULD potentially play out before the rally continues again in 24 hours. The target of the mini-bearish H&S is $138.50-136.00 roughly where I spread some buy orders in case its hit. You can buy or add to your Ethereum or ALTS positions at these levels. Above these levels we will not risk a buy anymore.

Support:
$141.50-140.50
$138.50-136.00 - Buy/Add more IF HIT / mirrored to ALTS - Target of the potential mini-H&S
$121-119.50
$116.50-115.00
$111.89-109.45
$103.15-102.80

Sell/Resistances:
$130-132 - HIT
$139-140 - HIT
$148-153 - HIT - Sell 0% (A) or Sell 10% (B) - HIT
$160-170 - Sell 30% (A) or Sell 20% (B)
$185-200 - Sell 70% (A) (B)

Dynamic Stoploss: $130

ETHUSD Potential mini-bearish H&S 15min Chart: See our telegram group for external chart (can't be posted here due to rules)
ETHUSD Trade Setup Chart:

26 Feb 2019

Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai

Two targets hit then we crashed. Our stoploss was hit at $143 then we went back to cash on from all our Ethereum and ALTS positions.

Currently, expecting a flash crash to $84-80 roughly in the next few days - max by February 28th Hard Fork as a sell the news event. A lot of traders are still long and I still see a lot of hope by the bull, so it makes sense to see Ethereum follow the blue fractal and wipe most of the bulls left in a true capitulation.