My ETHUSD Macro View

31 Okt 2018

I was asked what my bigger picture view is of ETHUSD. I think it is pretty apparent we finished a 5 wave impulse back in December based off the wave 4 triangle we came out of following the $420 high. Rule of thumb in Elliott Wave theory is that bear markets are generally bound by wave 4 of one smaller degree, so in this case ~$132, which lines up with my current $125 price target based on smaller wave fibs. There is not enough price data to say what wave this is, could be either wave 1 or wave 3 of cycle/primary degree. Wave 1s can retrace much more than this, however a wave 3s are generally bound by the 50% fib retrace. If $125 doesn't hold, I would look towards $68 and then $25 purely based off the semi-log fib retrace of the entire 5 wave move up.

26 Nov 2018

Nota

Here's a look at the channel I'm tracking for ETH on the daily. Could definitely see the $60s, but I would not be surprised if we bottomed out beforehand.