Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on February 20 2023

The market rose steadily over the weekend, but there was some adjustment this morning. Overall it is still a short-term high position of oscillation and in a phase of uncertainty.

The contradiction comes mainly from the weakness of macro data and the strength of technicals. Inflation and related data released this month have been shorting. For March, May, and June, each adding 25 basis points, the final interest rate reached 5.5% is expected to prevail for the time being. Even the Fed officials state that the reason for an immediate 50 basis point increase in March has been more than sufficient. From this perspective, the market has downward momentum.

But the market's movement reflects that it does not want to count on this. Perhaps the situation has been overkill in the last year under the high inflation and strong rate hike expectations. In this year's decline in inflation, even if there is a small recurrence, you can see that interest rate hikes will not be the norm. After the overall expectations are better than last year, there is also a reason for optimism.

In general, the macro analysis provides large-level judgments in trading. It is not suitable for short-term gaming. As analyzed many times before, regardless of the subsequent Federal Reserve and whether the economy is in recession, it will eventually return to the bull market. Under the credit money system, water release is always the norm.

So, the long and short term or continue to go on more. Even if the future greater rate hike and the real occurrence of the recession brought a certain amount of stop loss, the cost of trial and error would have also been a prerequisite for gaining profits.