Technical Structure:
The sharp rally from mid-2022 to early 2024 forms the flagpole.
The tight, downward-sloping consolidation (roughly mid-2023 to early 2025) forms the flag.
The recent breakout above the 1.5800–1.6000 zone confirms the flag breakout.
📊 Key Bull Flag Characteristics Met:
Prior strong impulsive move (flagpole)
Consolidation downward/slightly sideways in a tight range (flag)
Breakout with momentum above flag resistance
🌍 Fundamentals Confirm the Technical Picture:
As outlined previously, the macro environment aligns perfectly with this bullish breakout:
🔹 Euro Strength:
ECB is easing cautiously — still relatively hawkish vs peers.
Inflation remains sticky, reducing pressure for rapid cuts.
Eurozone economic data is stabilizing, especially in manufacturing.
🔻 Canadian Dollar Weakness:
Falling oil prices hurt CAD (Canada is a petro-currency).
BoC is dovish and may begin rate cuts sooner.
Domestic economic data (housing, retail) shows cracks.
🧭 Final Summary:
✅ Flag Breakout Thesis
✅ Bull flag structure validated
✅ Clean breakout and momentum
✅ Macro drivers support sustained upside
🔔 Key Levels:
Breakout Zone: 1.5800–1.6000
🔔 What to Watch Next:
ECB July meeting commentary
Canadian employment and CPI data
Crude oil weekly inventory reports
Risk-off sentiment (which usually supports EUR over CAD)
📈 Target Projection:
If 1.6000–1.6095 breaks, we look for:
🎯 Target: 1.72 – 1.74 (mid to late 2025)
🔰 Invalidation: Break back below 1.5250
The sharp rally from mid-2022 to early 2024 forms the flagpole.
The tight, downward-sloping consolidation (roughly mid-2023 to early 2025) forms the flag.
The recent breakout above the 1.5800–1.6000 zone confirms the flag breakout.
📊 Key Bull Flag Characteristics Met:
Prior strong impulsive move (flagpole)
Consolidation downward/slightly sideways in a tight range (flag)
Breakout with momentum above flag resistance
🌍 Fundamentals Confirm the Technical Picture:
As outlined previously, the macro environment aligns perfectly with this bullish breakout:
🔹 Euro Strength:
ECB is easing cautiously — still relatively hawkish vs peers.
Inflation remains sticky, reducing pressure for rapid cuts.
Eurozone economic data is stabilizing, especially in manufacturing.
🔻 Canadian Dollar Weakness:
Falling oil prices hurt CAD (Canada is a petro-currency).
BoC is dovish and may begin rate cuts sooner.
Domestic economic data (housing, retail) shows cracks.
🧭 Final Summary:
✅ Flag Breakout Thesis
✅ Bull flag structure validated
✅ Clean breakout and momentum
✅ Macro drivers support sustained upside
🔔 Key Levels:
Breakout Zone: 1.5800–1.6000
🔔 What to Watch Next:
ECB July meeting commentary
Canadian employment and CPI data
Crude oil weekly inventory reports
Risk-off sentiment (which usually supports EUR over CAD)
📈 Target Projection:
If 1.6000–1.6095 breaks, we look for:
🎯 Target: 1.72 – 1.74 (mid to late 2025)
🔰 Invalidation: Break back below 1.5250
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.