EURCHF Buy from Key Demand Zone – Recession Fears Cloud Upside

EURCHF has bounced sharply from a long-standing demand zone around 0.9200–0.9260, forming a potential double bottom. Price action suggests a bullish correction is underway, with upside targets at:

🎯 TP1: 0.9352

🎯 TP2: 0.9409

🎯 TP3: 0.9499

🚨 Invalidation Zone: Below 0.9200

The strong rejection from this support zone, combined with bullish structure building, signals the potential for a sustained recovery — if sentiment allows.

🧠 Fundamental Overview:
🔺 Eurozone PMI & Trade Data – Mixed Signals
French & German Flash Manufacturing PMIs remain under 50, indicating contraction

German Flash Services PMI (50.3) shows marginal expansion

Eurozone Trade Balance: 14.9B, slightly below expectations

⚠️ These results suggest slow economic recovery and limited growth momentum in the euro area.

🗣️ ECB Comments – Market Confidence Hit
ECB's Kazaks:

“Tariff war is adding economic risks”

“Euro area recession probability is rising”

These statements added to market caution, triggering euro weakness on concerns of slowing growth and potential ECB dovishness if downside risks worsen.

💡 CHF Context:
Safe-haven flows remain strong due to global uncertainty

However, CHF strength may be capped by Swiss low inflation and potential SNB interventions if EURCHF stays too low

🔍 EURCHF Outlook: Bullish Rebound with Caution
Technical view favors bullish retracement toward resistance zones

Fundamentals are weak, but the deeply discounted EURCHF pair could see short-term recovery before facing macro resistance

Recession and tariff war fears could keep upside limited or choppy

📌 Strategy Summary:
Buy Bias above 0.9260

Targets:

TP1: 0.9352

TP2: 0.9409

TP3: 0.9499

SL: Below 0.9200 (daily close)