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Trends-Waves-Momentum-Patterns "Key concepts of trading"
I am writing this idea to document my learnings in wave analysis. Your thoughts and comments on this document are welcomed for discussion.
Identification of waves and wave patterns is critical in wave analysis. I have seen that MOMENTUM is a key indicator in wave analysis.
There are four main concepts I use in my analysis:
1. Trend – It is defined as the direction in which the price is moving. Trend can be a downtrend or an uptrend. Downtrend shall be marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Uptrend shall be marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
2. Momentum – It can be defined as the pace at which the price moves i.e distance / time or the rate of change in price. Momentum is a relative measurement. it is measured with reference to the previous move and accordingly the momentum can be strong or weak compared to the previous move.
3. Wave – It is defined as a price move through time in a specific direction either up or down. Period should cover at least 2 candles or bars in a timeframe to form a wave.
4. Pattern is defined as a group of up and down waves formed in a specific manner. Patterns can be motive or corrective.
EURINR chart which I am following shall be used to explain the concepts. Price action in daily chart within the box shown in Chart 1 shall be in scope of analysis.
Chart 1:
The direction of price action within the box is downwards and hence the trend is down trend. Marking highs and lows within the trend is too early right now without applying the concept of wave moves. Accordingly, the following chart is marked with waves lines based on direction of price move.
Chart 2:
In the above chart there is a blue box marked with a purpose to explain why the price action in the box is marked as 1 single wave. Box is zoomed into and alternate possibility of marking waves within the box is represented below.
Chart 3
It could be seen above that the last candle in the box makes both the new low and high of the wave and there is no other possibility to mark it. However according to the definition of wave it cannot be formed with 1 period (candle) in a time frame. Hence the whole move is marked as a single move.
Now that the highs and lows in the trend are clearly visible, chart 2 shall be taken for further analysis. Based on clarity of waves movements the price action can be ripped apart as directional and corrective periods and represented in chart 4
Chart 4
Now getting into the logic behind identification of directional and corrective periods. Let’s analyse directional period-1 given in chart 4. Chart 5 is incorporated with momentum to analyse directional period-1.
Chart 5
Momentum of upward movement of price is marked in blue and downward movement in red. It can be seen from the above chart that the price movement to the downside (in red boxes) retraces the upward moves faster i.e. on the left hand side, price moved up by 0.8540 in 1 bar but at the same time it retraced the whole price and moved down by 0.8970 in 1 bar the next day and continued downwards. Similar momentum correlation can be found on the right-hand side of chart 5. Accordingly, the momentum is towards the downside and the price movement is directional during this period.
Now let’s analyse the momentum of price moves in correction period marked in chart 4. Chart 6 shows the analysis.
Chart 6
In chart 6 the momentum of downward price move is weaker than the upward price move. Momentum in chart 6 is in contrast with momentum in chart 5. This means the momentum of directional (downward and trending) move is weaker than the counter trend moves (upward move) hence this period contains corrective price action to the directional period-1.
Now let’s find the end of correction period-1 and resumption of directional moves in directional period-2. See chart 7.
Chart 7
Box marked with bold black border in chart 7 is the area where correction period ended. Change in momentum getting stronger towards the downside can be seen in bold black bordered box. 0.9414 up move which happened in 4 bars was engulphed by 1 bar to the downside marking the end of correction period and start of directional period-2.
Concepts of waves, momentum and trend being applied, now let’s get into marking the waves with Elliot wave counts. Chart 8 shows the Elliot wave counts and the patterns.
Chart 8
Chart 8 without minor waves
Now the query is how the move in box with bold black bordered box became wave 4 in Directional wave -2. Lets see it in Chart 9.
Chart 9
This is again due to the bias in momentum of up and down moves. The up move on the left-hand side(blue area) is with strong momentum than the down (directional) move (red area). The pattern within the box forms a C-failure flat pattern which upon completion resumes directional down move with strong momentum.
And finally the directional and corrective periods can be labelled with higher degree Elliot waves and the chart gets represented in Chart 10
Chart 10
Yes, it’s a ABC zigzag correction. Its labelled ABC instead of 123 because the momentum of Wave C is weaker than Wave A. In contrast if it is wave 3 it is expected to have strong momentum than wave 1. Conclusion: It’s an ABC correction.
Use momentum to identify the nature of future moves and enjoy trading.
This is how the messy chart 1 was simplified as chart 10 to identify the direction of price action, wave counts, patterns. There is no trade plan shared in this document but identification of directional and correction moves, identification of end of directional and correction periods, identification, counting and labelling wave patterns with this approach shall provide an objective insight in taking trades.
Once again HAPPY TRADING😊!!!!!!!!
Identification of waves and wave patterns is critical in wave analysis. I have seen that MOMENTUM is a key indicator in wave analysis.
There are four main concepts I use in my analysis:
1. Trend – It is defined as the direction in which the price is moving. Trend can be a downtrend or an uptrend. Downtrend shall be marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Uptrend shall be marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
2. Momentum – It can be defined as the pace at which the price moves i.e distance / time or the rate of change in price. Momentum is a relative measurement. it is measured with reference to the previous move and accordingly the momentum can be strong or weak compared to the previous move.
3. Wave – It is defined as a price move through time in a specific direction either up or down. Period should cover at least 2 candles or bars in a timeframe to form a wave.
4. Pattern is defined as a group of up and down waves formed in a specific manner. Patterns can be motive or corrective.
EURINR chart which I am following shall be used to explain the concepts. Price action in daily chart within the box shown in Chart 1 shall be in scope of analysis.
Chart 1:
The direction of price action within the box is downwards and hence the trend is down trend. Marking highs and lows within the trend is too early right now without applying the concept of wave moves. Accordingly, the following chart is marked with waves lines based on direction of price move.
Chart 2:
In the above chart there is a blue box marked with a purpose to explain why the price action in the box is marked as 1 single wave. Box is zoomed into and alternate possibility of marking waves within the box is represented below.
Chart 3
It could be seen above that the last candle in the box makes both the new low and high of the wave and there is no other possibility to mark it. However according to the definition of wave it cannot be formed with 1 period (candle) in a time frame. Hence the whole move is marked as a single move.
Now that the highs and lows in the trend are clearly visible, chart 2 shall be taken for further analysis. Based on clarity of waves movements the price action can be ripped apart as directional and corrective periods and represented in chart 4
Chart 4
Now getting into the logic behind identification of directional and corrective periods. Let’s analyse directional period-1 given in chart 4. Chart 5 is incorporated with momentum to analyse directional period-1.
Chart 5
Momentum of upward movement of price is marked in blue and downward movement in red. It can be seen from the above chart that the price movement to the downside (in red boxes) retraces the upward moves faster i.e. on the left hand side, price moved up by 0.8540 in 1 bar but at the same time it retraced the whole price and moved down by 0.8970 in 1 bar the next day and continued downwards. Similar momentum correlation can be found on the right-hand side of chart 5. Accordingly, the momentum is towards the downside and the price movement is directional during this period.
Now let’s analyse the momentum of price moves in correction period marked in chart 4. Chart 6 shows the analysis.
Chart 6
In chart 6 the momentum of downward price move is weaker than the upward price move. Momentum in chart 6 is in contrast with momentum in chart 5. This means the momentum of directional (downward and trending) move is weaker than the counter trend moves (upward move) hence this period contains corrective price action to the directional period-1.
Now let’s find the end of correction period-1 and resumption of directional moves in directional period-2. See chart 7.
Chart 7
Box marked with bold black border in chart 7 is the area where correction period ended. Change in momentum getting stronger towards the downside can be seen in bold black bordered box. 0.9414 up move which happened in 4 bars was engulphed by 1 bar to the downside marking the end of correction period and start of directional period-2.
Concepts of waves, momentum and trend being applied, now let’s get into marking the waves with Elliot wave counts. Chart 8 shows the Elliot wave counts and the patterns.
Chart 8
Chart 8 without minor waves
Now the query is how the move in box with bold black bordered box became wave 4 in Directional wave -2. Lets see it in Chart 9.
Chart 9
This is again due to the bias in momentum of up and down moves. The up move on the left-hand side(blue area) is with strong momentum than the down (directional) move (red area). The pattern within the box forms a C-failure flat pattern which upon completion resumes directional down move with strong momentum.
And finally the directional and corrective periods can be labelled with higher degree Elliot waves and the chart gets represented in Chart 10
Chart 10
Yes, it’s a ABC zigzag correction. Its labelled ABC instead of 123 because the momentum of Wave C is weaker than Wave A. In contrast if it is wave 3 it is expected to have strong momentum than wave 1. Conclusion: It’s an ABC correction.
Use momentum to identify the nature of future moves and enjoy trading.
This is how the messy chart 1 was simplified as chart 10 to identify the direction of price action, wave counts, patterns. There is no trade plan shared in this document but identification of directional and correction moves, identification of end of directional and correction periods, identification, counting and labelling wave patterns with this approach shall provide an objective insight in taking trades.
Once again HAPPY TRADING😊!!!!!!!!
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