Euro / Yen JepunPanjang
EUR/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis
EUR/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having successfully broken the downtrend with a breach of minor key resistance at 158.000, which has now turned into support. The formation of higher highs and higher lows confirms this trend change and indicates bullish momentum. The recent break of the next minor resistance at 159.4 confirms that buyers have stepped in, with price action moving towards the next major key level at 161.100.
Additionally, the concept of manipulation or liquidity grabs at key levels is crucial. The price has temporarily broken through significant levels, hunting stop losses before reversing direction. This stage has already occurred, and the price is now poised to break the major key resistance.
Price Action Expectation:
We are observing liquidity forming below the major key level. We are waiting for a breakout above 161.100 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. The plan is to place a buy stop order at 161.430, just above the major resistance, allowing entry once a move beyond this level is confirmed. A stop loss is considered below the liquidity at 160.700, which is a strategic location for risk management.
Trade Setup:
Trade Type: Buy Stop
Entry Price: 161.430 (just above the major resistance after a breakout)
Stop Loss: 160.700 (below the liquidity zone)
Take Profit: At the next major resistance level
Additional Considerations:
You also mentioned a potential bearish flag pattern, which suggests a possible short breakout in the future. However, more confluence or confirmation is needed before placing sell orders. The flag pattern could signal a potential reversal, so it’s important to wait for confirmation, such as a break below a support level or a bearish candlestick pattern, before acting on a short setup.
Conclusion:
The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators and a favorable fundamental outlook. Key economic indicators from the US, such as PMI, retail sales, and the Federal Funds rate, will significantly influence market sentiment and the USD's strength against the JPY. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and ensure proper risk management strategies are in place.
Fundamental Outlook:
The upcoming BOJ (Bank of Japan) Policy Rate decision this Thursday is likely to impact the EUR/JPY pair. If the BOJ maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy with no changes to rates, we could see the JPY remain weak, supporting the continuation of the EUR/JPY uptrend. However, if the BOJ signals a shift towards tightening or offers hawkish commentary, we might see JPY strength, leading to a pullback in EUR/JPY.
Market sentiment will be crucial—hawkish news from the BOJ could trigger a risk-off move, benefiting the JPY, while dovish news may encourage a risk-on sentiment, driving EUR/JPY higher.
Traders should remain cautious around the BOJ release, as volatility could lead to price manipulation or liquidity grabs, particularly near the 161.100 resistance level.
Trend Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having successfully broken the downtrend with a breach of minor key resistance at 158.000, which has now turned into support. The formation of higher highs and higher lows confirms this trend change and indicates bullish momentum. The recent break of the next minor resistance at 159.4 confirms that buyers have stepped in, with price action moving towards the next major key level at 161.100.
Additionally, the concept of manipulation or liquidity grabs at key levels is crucial. The price has temporarily broken through significant levels, hunting stop losses before reversing direction. This stage has already occurred, and the price is now poised to break the major key resistance.
Price Action Expectation:
We are observing liquidity forming below the major key level. We are waiting for a breakout above 161.100 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. The plan is to place a buy stop order at 161.430, just above the major resistance, allowing entry once a move beyond this level is confirmed. A stop loss is considered below the liquidity at 160.700, which is a strategic location for risk management.
Trade Setup:
Trade Type: Buy Stop
Entry Price: 161.430 (just above the major resistance after a breakout)
Stop Loss: 160.700 (below the liquidity zone)
Take Profit: At the next major resistance level
Additional Considerations:
You also mentioned a potential bearish flag pattern, which suggests a possible short breakout in the future. However, more confluence or confirmation is needed before placing sell orders. The flag pattern could signal a potential reversal, so it’s important to wait for confirmation, such as a break below a support level or a bearish candlestick pattern, before acting on a short setup.
Conclusion:
The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators and a favorable fundamental outlook. Key economic indicators from the US, such as PMI, retail sales, and the Federal Funds rate, will significantly influence market sentiment and the USD's strength against the JPY. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and ensure proper risk management strategies are in place.
Fundamental Outlook:
The upcoming BOJ (Bank of Japan) Policy Rate decision this Thursday is likely to impact the EUR/JPY pair. If the BOJ maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy with no changes to rates, we could see the JPY remain weak, supporting the continuation of the EUR/JPY uptrend. However, if the BOJ signals a shift towards tightening or offers hawkish commentary, we might see JPY strength, leading to a pullback in EUR/JPY.
Market sentiment will be crucial—hawkish news from the BOJ could trigger a risk-off move, benefiting the JPY, while dovish news may encourage a risk-on sentiment, driving EUR/JPY higher.
Traders should remain cautious around the BOJ release, as volatility could lead to price manipulation or liquidity grabs, particularly near the 161.100 resistance level.
Penafian
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