EURTRY - Possible start of a serious correction
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The Turkish Lira has been so beaten up these last few years, it's pretty hard to think about going long. However, looking back, I can spot similar behavior after parabolic moves (labeled on the weekly chart). Note that at the moment the weekly chart is still bullish, so this is an anticipation trade.
Going on to the daily chart, a double top is taking shape at the round level of 4.0, with a slight bearish divergence on the histogram. This warrants a small short, however, it is not the easiest trade to take.
Fundamentally, Erdogan taking over full power of Turkish politics should prove, at least in the short term, beneficial to the Lira. Instead of having an unstable political landscape, a few months of calm and stability are coming. All of this, coupled with a weak dollar, a predictable FED, calm in world wide stock markets should push the Lira higher. Keep in mind the huge swap you earn on a longLira position.
Soft stop above 4.0, targets outlined on chart. The longer it takes for this pair to reach those targets, the more swap you earn.
Going on to the daily chart, a double top is taking shape at the round level of 4.0, with a slight bearish divergence on the histogram. This warrants a small short, however, it is not the easiest trade to take.
Fundamentally, Erdogan taking over full power of Turkish politics should prove, at least in the short term, beneficial to the Lira. Instead of having an unstable political landscape, a few months of calm and stability are coming. All of this, coupled with a weak dollar, a predictable FED, calm in world wide stock markets should push the Lira higher. Keep in mind the huge swap you earn on a longLira position.
Soft stop above 4.0, targets outlined on chart. The longer it takes for this pair to reach those targets, the more swap you earn.
Nota
Just to make sure, this idea is a SHORT, not a long! My bad!
Penafian
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