EURUSD: ECB rate decision
The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, PCE Price Index, was standing at 2.7% in April, exactly in line with market expectations. Core PCE was 2.8%, without a change from the previous month. Core PCE was increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, while PCE index was up by 0.3% for the month. The US CB Consumer Confidence in May was at level of 102.0 much higher from market estimate of 95.9. GDP growth rate, second estimate for Q1 remained at the same level of 1.3% q/q, and was in line with forecast.
The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in May was a bit lower from market estimate of 90.4, ending the month at level of 89.3. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in June was at level of -20.9, a bit better from forecasted -22.5. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary for May was 2.4% y/y in line with market expectations. Retail Sales in Germany were standing at -0.6% on a yearly basis in April, a bit better than the -1.9% posted for the previous month. Import Prices in Germany increased in April by 0.7% for the month. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash in May was standing at 2.6%, a bit higher from market expectations of 2.5%. Core inflation was standing at 2.9% y/y.
For one more week the eurusd currency pair was moving within a relatively short range. The US PCE data were in line with market expectations, in which sense, there was nothing new to price. The highest – lowest weekly range was between levels of 1.078 and 1.088. The currency pair is ending the week at level of 1.084. In line with the low market movements, the RSI was also moving within a short range, around the level of 56-60. Based on the indicator, it seems that the market is still not ready to start a round toward the oversold market side. Moving average of 50 days is slowly diverging from its MA200 counterpart, however, within quite a short distance.
PCE data did not provide any surprises to the market during the previous week, however, the week ahead might bring back some higher volatility. In the first place there will be an ECB Meeting and rate decision. The markets are quite optimistic that the ECB might cut its interest rates in June, taking into account inflation which is coming down, and close to 2% target. Still, some surprises might be possible, in case ECB members decide to hold rates a bit longer. On the US side, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for May will be posted in a week ahead. In case of any surprises which diverge from market expectations, there might also be some higher volatility. During the previous period, eurusd tested 1.08 resistance line on several occasions. Although breached, there has not been market strength to push the currency pair toward 1.09 level. On the opposite side, the market was testing 1.07 levels, and again was not able to break to the levels below. The week ahead might bring some changes to the current range. This will depend on both ECB decisions, and macro data in the US. Current charts are looking bearish for the week ahead. The next long term support line stands at 1.067, however, it will take more than one week for this level to be reached. At the same time, there is some probability that the market will test 1.09 for one more time, before it starts its final road toward the 1.07 down to 1.067.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Unemployment Rate for Germany in May, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference after the ECB meeting, GDP Growth Rate 3rd estimate for Q1 for the Euro Zone,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, ISM Services PMI in May, Non-farm payrolls for May, Unemployment Rate for May
The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in May was a bit lower from market estimate of 90.4, ending the month at level of 89.3. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in June was at level of -20.9, a bit better from forecasted -22.5. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary for May was 2.4% y/y in line with market expectations. Retail Sales in Germany were standing at -0.6% on a yearly basis in April, a bit better than the -1.9% posted for the previous month. Import Prices in Germany increased in April by 0.7% for the month. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash in May was standing at 2.6%, a bit higher from market expectations of 2.5%. Core inflation was standing at 2.9% y/y.
For one more week the eurusd currency pair was moving within a relatively short range. The US PCE data were in line with market expectations, in which sense, there was nothing new to price. The highest – lowest weekly range was between levels of 1.078 and 1.088. The currency pair is ending the week at level of 1.084. In line with the low market movements, the RSI was also moving within a short range, around the level of 56-60. Based on the indicator, it seems that the market is still not ready to start a round toward the oversold market side. Moving average of 50 days is slowly diverging from its MA200 counterpart, however, within quite a short distance.
PCE data did not provide any surprises to the market during the previous week, however, the week ahead might bring back some higher volatility. In the first place there will be an ECB Meeting and rate decision. The markets are quite optimistic that the ECB might cut its interest rates in June, taking into account inflation which is coming down, and close to 2% target. Still, some surprises might be possible, in case ECB members decide to hold rates a bit longer. On the US side, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for May will be posted in a week ahead. In case of any surprises which diverge from market expectations, there might also be some higher volatility. During the previous period, eurusd tested 1.08 resistance line on several occasions. Although breached, there has not been market strength to push the currency pair toward 1.09 level. On the opposite side, the market was testing 1.07 levels, and again was not able to break to the levels below. The week ahead might bring some changes to the current range. This will depend on both ECB decisions, and macro data in the US. Current charts are looking bearish for the week ahead. The next long term support line stands at 1.067, however, it will take more than one week for this level to be reached. At the same time, there is some probability that the market will test 1.09 for one more time, before it starts its final road toward the 1.07 down to 1.067.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Unemployment Rate for Germany in May, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference after the ECB meeting, GDP Growth Rate 3rd estimate for Q1 for the Euro Zone,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, ISM Services PMI in May, Non-farm payrolls for May, Unemployment Rate for May
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