EUR/USD Technicals Heading into NFP

5 Nov 2021

The Euro has been plainly in a downtrend since May, with the currency mostly carving out short-term lower-lows and lower-highs as a consequence. Another lower-lower in this region might be on the way very soon. A breach below 1.1524 will be enough to drive the EUR/USD into the red and to a new cycle low. It will be fascinating to observe how a new low is received, since the March 2020 spike-high will soon be challenged, which is a major moment in the market's history. This milestone is hit at 1.1495, which is just 29 pips lower than the October low. Even if the Euro continues to plummet, a commensurate first response is possible. If we don't see a strong recovery emerge at that point, the next level to monitor is 1.1423, which is the under-side trend-line extending low from June. Because of the great number of inflection points and the general cleanliness of the line, the lower-side trend-line is of special importance. It tucks nicely behind the low pressure system from June until early October. Given the trend-angle, line's it is now running about 1.1400, but it is a moving target that is going significantly downward as a consequence of the trend-line. To turn around and break the plainly bearish series of lower-lows and lower-highs that has been in place since January, the EUR/USD must turn around and break the clearly bearish sequence of lower-lows and lower-highs that has been in place since January. This will not be an easy or fast task. In order for this to happen, the Euro would have to trade back over 1.1840, which is a very unlikely probability at the moment.