23/5/25 Bears Got Strong Entry Bar, Need FT Selling Tomorrow

1. Thursday’s candlestick (22 May) was a big bear bar closing near its low.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a strong bear entry bar closing near its low, or if the market would continue to trade sideways around the 20-day EMA area instead.
   
3. The bears got a big bear entry bar testing near the May 16 low area.
   
4. They see the recent move as a retest of the May 14 high and want it to form a lower high. This was the case.
   
5. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14) and another smaller double top bear flag (May 14 and May 20).
   
6. They want another strong leg down to retest the May 8 low.
   
7. Since they got a strong bear entry bar today, they need to create a follow-through bear bar, breaking below the May 16 low, increasing the odds of a retest of the May 8 low.
   
8. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 22).
   
9. They want another big leg up, testing the 4000 area.
   
10. They must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
11. Exports for the first 20 days seem ok, +5%
    
12. Production is up marginally so far.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems good. Slightly slower this week.
    
14. For tomorrow (Friday, 23 May), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar closing near its low. If so, the weekly candlestick will close near its low, increasing the odds that the market will trade at least slightly lower next week.
    
15. Or will the bears fail to create a follow-through bear bar, and the bulls get a retest near the 20-day EMA instead? If this is true, it indicates that the bear's case is weak.
    

Andrew