20/5/25 Bulls Need Bull Bar Closing Above 20-Day EMA

1. Monday’s candlestick (19 May) was a bull bar closing in its upper half.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could get another follow-through bear bar, or if the market would retest the May 14 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
3. The market gapped up at the open and traded up for the day, testing near the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14).
   
5. They see the current move as a retest of the May 14 high and want it to form a lower high.
   
6. They want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by another strong leg down to retest the May 8 low.
   
7. If the market trades higher, they want the 14 May high to act as resistance.
   
8. The bulls want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (?).
   
9. They want a large second leg sideways to up.
   
10. They must create a strong retest of the May 14 high and a strong breakout with sustained follow-through buying.
    
11. The bulls must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
12. Exports for the first 15 days seem decent, +10 to 15%
    
13. Production is up marginally so far.
    
14. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems good.
    
15. For tomorrow (Tuesday, 20 May), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA. So far in the night market, the candlestick is a follow-through bull bar trading above the 20-day EMA.
    
16. Or will the market trade slightly higher, but stall below the May 14 high and close below the 20-day EMA again?
    
17. The weekly candlestick closing near its low slightly favours the market to trade at least a little lower sometime this week.
    

Andrew