26/5/25 Bears Need Strong Follow-through Selling

1. Friday’s candlestick (23 May) was an inside bear doji.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar closing near its low. If so, the weekly candlestick will close near its low, increasing the odds that the market will trade at least slightly lower next week.
   
3. The bears got some follow-through selling albeit not a strong one. Considering Soybean Oil was trading higher for the day, the bulls were not able to create a bull bar which indicates the bulls are not yet strong.
   
4. The bears see the recent move as a retest of the May 14 high and want it to form a lower high. This was the case.
   
5. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14) and another smaller double top bear flag (May 14 and May 20).
   
6. They see Friday simply as a pullback and want follow-through selling next week.
   
7. They want another strong leg down to retest the May 8 low.
   
8. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 22).
   
9. They want another big leg up, testing the 4000 area.
   
10. They must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal. So far, they have not yet been able to do so.
    
11. Exports for the first 20 days seem ok, +5%
    
12. Production is up marginally so far.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems good—slightly slower last week.
    
14. The market could still trade at least a little lower next week.
    
15. For tomorrow (Monday, 26 May), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar closing near its low. That would increase the odds of testing near the May 8 low.
    
16. Or will the bears fail to create a follow-through bear bar, and the candlestick close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead?
    

Andrew