19/5/25 Bears Need More FT Selling, Bulls Want May 14 High

1. Friday's candlestick (May 16) was a follow-through bear bar with tails.
   
2. In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears could get a strong follow-through bear bar. If they do, the odds of retesting the May 8 low increase. Or if the market would trade slightly lower, but close with a long tail below or a bull body, forming a higher low instead.
   
3. The bears got a follow-through bear bar, albeit not a big one.
   
4. They see the recent rally as a pullback and hope that the move has alleviated the oversold conditions and want a resumption of the trend.
   
5. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14).
   
6. They need to create more follow-through selling to increase the odds of a retest and breakout below the May 8 low.
   
7. If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high. They want it to stall below the 20-day EMA (around 3900). They want any pullback higher to lack follow-through buying.
   
8. The bulls see the current move as a retest of the prior trend's extreme low (May 8).
   
9. They want the market to form a higher low followed by at least a small second leg sideways to up to retest the recent leg high (May 14 high), even if it only forms a lower high.
   
10. The bulls must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
11. Exports for the first 15 days seem decent, +10 to 15%
    
12. Production is up marginally so far.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems good.
    
14. For tomorrow (Monday, 19/5/25), traders want to see if the bears can get another follow-through bear bar. If they do, the odds of retesting the May 8 low increase.
    
15. Or will the market form a retest of the May 14 high, even if it only forms a lower high?
    
16. The weekly candlestick closing near its low slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower sometime this week.
    

Andrew