FCPO / Crude Palm Oil - 21 April 2025 Daily Chart Analysis

• Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a prominent tail above.
  
• In our previous report, we said the market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout.
  
• The market formed a breakout below the 4000 on Friday.
  
• The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 18) and a lower low major trend reversal.
  
• The problem with the bull's case is that they couldn't create bull bars with follow-through buying.
  
• They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
  
• The bears want a retest of the January low.
  
• They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
  
• They got a breakout below the April 16 low on Friday. They need to create sustained follow-through selling to increase the odds of a measured move down.
  
• Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%.
  
• Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
  
• Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
  
• The market remains Always In Short.
  
• So far, the move down since April 1 is in a tight bear channel with strong bear bars. The selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
  
• Because this week closed near its low, the market may gap down next week. Small gaps usually close early.
  
• Traders want to see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar to confirm the breakout below the 4000 level. If they can create follow-through selling, we may see a retest of the January low around the 3850-3800 area.
  
• Or will the market lack follow-through selling, and reverse back above 4000 instead?
  
• For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower.