Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - 19300 was the first target and bulls could not get above, since overall markets were very weak today. 19600 is still my target for tomorrow, if we stay above 19200. If US bulls do not want to reverse hard tomorrow and we have an overall weak market again, dax will likely close the week around 19100 or below.
comment: Bulls listened and we got the huge reversal up. Measured move up target is 19600 and then there is no reason why we can’t make a new ath. Tomorrow is Friday and Opex, so we will likely see a huge move. Bias is still full bull, 1h 20ema should be support. Below 19200 bears will likely take control again and we can close the week below 19100 or around 19000, which would be bearish going into next week.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19700
bull case: Said the most in my comment. Watch if market holds it above the 1h ema and 19250ish. Also keep an eye on the other big indexes, if they are all weak again tomorrow, dax will likely not close the week above 19300.
Invalidation is below 19200.
bear case: Bears gave up early today, which was expected after today’s strong reversal from 18905. Will bears fight this at 19300? I can only see this happening if most markets are weak tomorrow. The leg up was very strong to expect a second one and the measured move up is 19600. Bears can not hold short if this goes above 19400 and the buying will accelerate then.
Invalidation is above 19400.
short term: Bull if we stay above 19200/19250 or 1h 20ema - target 19600 or higher. If all markets are weak, we could close the week below 19000 but I can’t see this for now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: I gave the long yesterday and it was good for 200+ points. Hope you made some.
tl;dr
dax futures - 19300 was the first target and bulls could not get above, since overall markets were very weak today. 19600 is still my target for tomorrow, if we stay above 19200. If US bulls do not want to reverse hard tomorrow and we have an overall weak market again, dax will likely close the week around 19100 or below.
comment: Bulls listened and we got the huge reversal up. Measured move up target is 19600 and then there is no reason why we can’t make a new ath. Tomorrow is Friday and Opex, so we will likely see a huge move. Bias is still full bull, 1h 20ema should be support. Below 19200 bears will likely take control again and we can close the week below 19100 or around 19000, which would be bearish going into next week.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19700
bull case: Said the most in my comment. Watch if market holds it above the 1h ema and 19250ish. Also keep an eye on the other big indexes, if they are all weak again tomorrow, dax will likely not close the week above 19300.
Invalidation is below 19200.
bear case: Bears gave up early today, which was expected after today’s strong reversal from 18905. Will bears fight this at 19300? I can only see this happening if most markets are weak tomorrow. The leg up was very strong to expect a second one and the measured move up is 19600. Bears can not hold short if this goes above 19400 and the buying will accelerate then.
Invalidation is above 19400.
short term: Bull if we stay above 19200/19250 or 1h 20ema - target 19600 or higher. If all markets are weak, we could close the week below 19000 but I can’t see this for now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: I gave the long yesterday and it was good for 200+ points. Hope you made some.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.