GBPAUD Eyes 1.78 amd 2.15

9 Jul 2023

Prices are turning bullish on the daily charts with the first key level of interest around 1.7800. This is just above the 200-day Simple Moving Average which could act as a very tough resistance. A strong breakout above this point could encourage an incline toward 1.8100. Alternatively, sustained weakness below 1.7800 may signal a selloff towards 1.7350.



Pound to AU Dollar forecast by day.
Date Weekday Min Max Rate
10/07 Monday 1.885 1.943 1.914
11/07 Tuesday 1.899 1.957 1.928
12/07 Wednesday 1.909 1.967 1.938
13/07 Thursday 1.906 1.964 1.935
14/07 Friday 1.903 1.961 1.932
17/07 Monday 1.903 1.961 1.932
18/07 Tuesday 1.894 1.952 1.923
19/07 Wednesday 1.902 1.960 1.931
20/07 Thursday 1.905 1.963 1.934
21/07 Friday 1.905 1.963 1.934
24/07 Monday 1.923 1.981 1.952
25/07 Tuesday 1.931 1.989 1.960
26/07 Wednesday 1.928 1.986 1.957
27/07 Thursday 1.941 2.001 1.971
28/07 Friday 1.944 2.004 1.974
31/07 Monday 1.951 2.011 1.981
01/08 Tuesday 1.945 2.005 1.975
02/08 Wednesday 1.945 2.005 1.975
03/08 Thursday 1.956 2.016 1.986
04/08 Friday 1.942 2.002 1.972
07/08 Monday 1.938 1.998 1.968
08/08 Tuesday 1.940 2.000 1.970
09/08 Wednesday 1.947 2.007 1.977
10/08 Thursday 1.930 1.988 1.959




It is a busy week ahead for the GBP to USD. The UK Labour Market Overview and the US CPI Report will set the tone in the first half of the week.



On Wednesday, the BoE will release the Financial Stability Report ahead of the monthly GDP Report on Thursday. Weak GDP numbers and hawkish BoE bets would fuel recessionary jitters and test buyer appetite.

The BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Tues), NIESR GDP Estimate (Thurs), and the RICS House Price Balance (Thurs) are also out. However, the markets will likely brush aside the housing sector data.

13 Jul 2023

Nota

Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).

23 Jul 2023

Nota

Trade is open