Long GBPAUD - Anticipating No Surprise to MPC Vote
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So generally the MPC vote is expected to be Neutral and if we look through a bit, if it does comes out 7 Hold to 2 Hike as expected, GBP should be weaken.
Now my intention is to look for clue if the market has already priced this in: on average, up to this point GBP is down with the most down being GBPAUD. Let's say the trend continues to in the next hour, my conclusion is the market has priced in the base case expectation. What I will do is to Enter Long GBPAUD as I bet if the outcome is Neutral GBP will rebound. The scenario where I will lose money will be not all of the results came out as expected i.e. one of those data point is even more bearish (increase in amount of APF, more than 0 dovish vote).
Technical level: it is hovering around 1.6476 - 1.65, I will make Entry with Stop-loss below these, TP is around 1.6574 - 1.66
Now my intention is to look for clue if the market has already priced this in: on average, up to this point GBP is down with the most down being GBPAUD. Let's say the trend continues to in the next hour, my conclusion is the market has priced in the base case expectation. What I will do is to Enter Long GBPAUD as I bet if the outcome is Neutral GBP will rebound. The scenario where I will lose money will be not all of the results came out as expected i.e. one of those data point is even more bearish (increase in amount of APF, more than 0 dovish vote).
Technical level: it is hovering around 1.6476 - 1.65, I will make Entry with Stop-loss below these, TP is around 1.6574 - 1.66
Nota
This is probably goes down as one of the sweetest loss ever for me.I anticipated the entire outcome correctly. and the price actually proved my analysis right. The only issue that makes this trade a loss was I failed to recognize the potential volatility of it. Which by all means an easy fix as I can now go back and estimate the average volatility for similar events in the past. Loser does gives a lot more than winner.
Penafian
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