Analysis of GBP/JPY on 4H Time Frame
Analysis Breakdown
Elliott Wave Structure
The chart shows a complete 5-wave impulse that started around the 178.375 level and extended upwards near 197.58, where Wave 5 is approaching its end. The following breakdown highlights each significant movement:
Wave 1 (Red) initiated from the low at 178.375 and set the foundation for the upward impulse, followed by Wave 2, which retraced but respected key Fibonacci levels.
Wave 3 (Red) marked a strong rally, typically the longest and most extended in Elliott Wave structures, reaching levels around 191.000. This was followed by Wave 4, which consolidated and retraced again but did not breach critical support.
Wave 5 (Red), nearing completion, reaches a high of around 197.58, where the price has begun to show signs of exhaustion. The wave count suggests that Wave 5 could be nearing an end, and the market is primed for a corrective movement.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
The retracement levels have been drawn from the low at 178.375 to the current high around 197.58, marking potential key support levels for the anticipated correction.
0.236 Retracement: 193.414
0.382 Retracement: 191.570
0.5 Retracement: 190.000
These levels are critical to watch for in the next phase, as they are potential targets for price retracements after the completion of the impulsive Wave 5.
Invalidation & Risk Management
The invalidation level is set at 198.820. Should the price break above this level, the Elliott Wave count would be invalidated, suggesting that the bearish outlook would no longer hold. This serves as a stop-loss point for traders, indicating when to exit a short position.
The chart suggests a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:3.85, meaning the potential profit from a successful trade setup would outweigh the risk by a factor of 3.85.
Corrective Outlook (Wave A, B, C)
With Wave 5 near completion, the chart suggests the start of a corrective phase consisting of three corrective waves labeled as A, B, and C.
Wave A: The initial drop is expected to bring the price to the first Fibonacci level around 193.414.
Wave B: A potential short-term rebound before further declines.
Wave C: Expected to complete the correction around the 0.382 Fibonacci level (191.570), though it could extend to the 0.5 Fibonacci level (190.000), depending on the strength of the correction.
This suggests a bearish outlook in the next two weeks, with key targets below the 193.000 level.
Volume Profile & Point of Control (POC)
The Point of Control (POC) at 199.900 represents a strong resistance level where a large volume of trades has occurred. Given that the price is currently near this area, it acts as a potential cap for any upside movement.
Below the POC, the chart suggests that downside pressure could increase as sellers dominate the market, especially after breaching key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Support Zones
Support Line - SC Accumulation (4H): Around 178.375, this zone indicates where significant buying pressure was observed in earlier phases, marking a long-term support level for the pair.
Phase C Support: The market could eventually revisit the Phase C support zone near 180.000, indicating a significant bearish move is possible if the corrective wave extends beyond the initial retracement targets.
Conclusion
The technical analysis of the GBP/JPY pair on the 4-hour time frame suggests that the pair is nearing the end of an upward 5-wave Elliott impulse. After reaching a high around 197.58, the price is expected to enter a corrective A-B-C wave structure. The first corrective target lies at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of 193.414, followed by the 0.382 retracement near 191.570. The analysis identifies potential support and resistance levels, alongside an invalidation level at 198.820, which should serve as a key risk management point.
Over the next two weeks, a bearish correction is expected, with targets below 193.000 and potentially reaching the 190.000 level, depending on the strength of the upcoming retracement. Traders should prepare for a potential short-selling opportunity, with a focus on key Fibonacci retracement levels and resistance zones near the POC at 199.900.
Elliott Wave Structure
The chart shows a complete 5-wave impulse that started around the 178.375 level and extended upwards near 197.58, where Wave 5 is approaching its end. The following breakdown highlights each significant movement:
Wave 1 (Red) initiated from the low at 178.375 and set the foundation for the upward impulse, followed by Wave 2, which retraced but respected key Fibonacci levels.
Wave 3 (Red) marked a strong rally, typically the longest and most extended in Elliott Wave structures, reaching levels around 191.000. This was followed by Wave 4, which consolidated and retraced again but did not breach critical support.
Wave 5 (Red), nearing completion, reaches a high of around 197.58, where the price has begun to show signs of exhaustion. The wave count suggests that Wave 5 could be nearing an end, and the market is primed for a corrective movement.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
The retracement levels have been drawn from the low at 178.375 to the current high around 197.58, marking potential key support levels for the anticipated correction.
0.236 Retracement: 193.414
0.382 Retracement: 191.570
0.5 Retracement: 190.000
These levels are critical to watch for in the next phase, as they are potential targets for price retracements after the completion of the impulsive Wave 5.
Invalidation & Risk Management
The invalidation level is set at 198.820. Should the price break above this level, the Elliott Wave count would be invalidated, suggesting that the bearish outlook would no longer hold. This serves as a stop-loss point for traders, indicating when to exit a short position.
The chart suggests a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:3.85, meaning the potential profit from a successful trade setup would outweigh the risk by a factor of 3.85.
Corrective Outlook (Wave A, B, C)
With Wave 5 near completion, the chart suggests the start of a corrective phase consisting of three corrective waves labeled as A, B, and C.
Wave A: The initial drop is expected to bring the price to the first Fibonacci level around 193.414.
Wave B: A potential short-term rebound before further declines.
Wave C: Expected to complete the correction around the 0.382 Fibonacci level (191.570), though it could extend to the 0.5 Fibonacci level (190.000), depending on the strength of the correction.
This suggests a bearish outlook in the next two weeks, with key targets below the 193.000 level.
Volume Profile & Point of Control (POC)
The Point of Control (POC) at 199.900 represents a strong resistance level where a large volume of trades has occurred. Given that the price is currently near this area, it acts as a potential cap for any upside movement.
Below the POC, the chart suggests that downside pressure could increase as sellers dominate the market, especially after breaching key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Support Zones
Support Line - SC Accumulation (4H): Around 178.375, this zone indicates where significant buying pressure was observed in earlier phases, marking a long-term support level for the pair.
Phase C Support: The market could eventually revisit the Phase C support zone near 180.000, indicating a significant bearish move is possible if the corrective wave extends beyond the initial retracement targets.
Conclusion
The technical analysis of the GBP/JPY pair on the 4-hour time frame suggests that the pair is nearing the end of an upward 5-wave Elliott impulse. After reaching a high around 197.58, the price is expected to enter a corrective A-B-C wave structure. The first corrective target lies at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of 193.414, followed by the 0.382 retracement near 191.570. The analysis identifies potential support and resistance levels, alongside an invalidation level at 198.820, which should serve as a key risk management point.
Over the next two weeks, a bearish correction is expected, with targets below 193.000 and potentially reaching the 190.000 level, depending on the strength of the upcoming retracement. Traders should prepare for a potential short-selling opportunity, with a focus on key Fibonacci retracement levels and resistance zones near the POC at 199.900.
Nota
Penafian
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