Forget USDJPY: Time to watch GBPJPY for intervention?

13 Nov 2023

The UK’s inflation rate due this week (early early Wednesday morning), and there is a huge projected drop in the reading from last month, from 6.7% to 4.8%. This huge drop leaves a lot of room for disappointment, and higher CPI reading could exert upside pressure on the GBPJPY, which is already at a multi-month high. It is for this reason I bring up the possibility that traders should watch for intervention in this pair, whether direct or indirect.

Supporting the possibility of a bullish GBPJPY is the rejection of yesterday's significant downside wick (touching the 50-day moving average on the 1-hour chart). This rejection was followed by a further move to the upside.

Further upside will see the pair challenge the three-month high at 186.77 and open the possibility for a correction/ intervention. In the past, ¥185.00 has proven to be somewhat of an anchor point for the pair, but perhaps a more accurate support is now ¥185.50?

Don’t forget that US CPI numbers are due this week too, one day before UK numbers hit the market.