DeGRAM | GBPJPY broke through and fixed above the channel

13 Mei

📊 Technical Analysis
● Price has broken the 8‑month descending channel’s roof and reclaimed the last swing‑high at 194, turning it into support and signalling a trend reversal.
● The move launches from a bullish pennant; its measured target and the channel’s midline converge in the 196 – 197.8 resistance zone.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● UK average earnings held above 6 % y/y in April, curbing BoE‑cut speculation and keeping gilt yields elevated.
● Japan’s Q1 GDP shrank and the BoJ left policy ultra‑loose, widening the UK–JP rate gap and pressuring the yen.

✨ Summary
Channel breakout plus strong UK data and soft JPY bias favour a long GBP/JPY: aim for 196 → 197.8, risk managed on a daily close back below 194.

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15 Mei

Dagangan aktif

📊 Technical Analysis
● Price bounced at the mid-rising-channel trend-line (≈192.5), forming consecutive higher lows while defending the breakout above the long-term descending TL.
● A pennant carved beneath 194.0 has resolved higher; holding this re-tested level keeps 195.7.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● UK April CPI core stayed at 4.6 % y/y, prompting markets to trim August BoE-cut odds; gilt 2-yr yields climbed >4.3 %.
● BoJ minutes showed no appetite for near-term rate hikes even as USD/JPY pressure persists, leaving the wide GBP-JPY rate gap intact.

✨ Summary
Channel support hold + sticky UK inflation versus dovish BoJ back a push from 194 → 195.7 → 197; long bias void below 192.5.


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