GBPUSD | Intraday Analysis: New Top is coming?

12 Mac

Hi Traders!
From a technical point of view, the trend is still bullish on the intraday chart and the pair should trigger a new Top in the short term. Having said that, it is currently unclear how GBPUSD will develop the next swing, it could be an ABC or ABCDE Pattern as shown on chart. Most likely, tomorrow's session will be our main driver.

Trade with care
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13 Mac

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🔴 Since joining the Bank of England in July 2023, Megan Greene has been one of the more interesting voters on the committee. In her first meeting, the policymaker voted with the majority to raise the bank rate before joining the hawkish dissenters in the following three meetings. However, at the most recent policy decision, Greene had once again joined the majority, voting to leave the bank rate unchanged. Since then, Greene has shown an openness to switch her vote towards a rate cut, potentially joining uber dove Swati Dhingra, should signs of inflation persistence ease. That said, in light of the latest wage growth data, this raises the risk that the rate-setter will switch her vote to a cut, possibly as soon as the March meeting. Recall, that at the Treasury Select Committee, Greene had mentioned that expectations for wage growth in the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey at 5.4% presented an upside inflation risk. That figure is now 4.9%, the lowest reading since May 2022. With markets pricing in less than three rate cuts (0#BOEWATCH), the bar for a hawkish BoE is high and thus there is room for a dovish repricing. But this will depend on next week’s UK inflation report (Mar 20) with close attention paid to services inflation. Should we see a downside surprise, there is a good chance that the vote split shows two rate cuts at the March meeting. While the door opens towards a June rate cut.

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