Paun British / Dolar A.S.
Singkat

GBPUSD Is it really that doomed??

202
The GBPUSD pair has completed 2 straight red months (1M candles) after an emphatic rejection within the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). We rarely look at the 1M (monthly) time-frame but this time it is needed in order to gain a long-term perspective following this rejection and bearish reversal.

July's rejection took place none other than the Lower Highs trend-line, the multi-decade Resistance level that started during the 2007/08 Housing Crisis. As you can see this is where the May 2021 top was rejected too. We can view this 16 year price action as a Falling Wedge. Every Lower Highs of the Wedge has been price near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and every Lower Low near the -0.236 extension.

So as the title says, is the British Pound doomed? Well on 1 year perspective at least, chances are we should see it testing 1.1000 (at least). The -0.236 extension is much lower at 0.9450. Perhaps 1.0000 (parity) could be a fair target inside 2025. Keep in mind however that Falling Wedges have a tendency to break upwards aggressively. Not entirely applicable to such long term price action (that is vastly affected by fundamentals) but it gives us a certain degree of perspective. We could see the Falling Wedge breaking upwards around 2027.

Do you think GBPUSD will keep dropping until then?

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