Paun British / Dolar A.S.
Singkat

GBP/USD Short trade Idea

333
I've been shorting GU since May given my view on Global monetary policy from different central banks and what they will do this year and going into 2025. You can also check out my dollar idea to get a much more clear view of my take. But to summarize, I expect Dollar to stay strong throughout 2024 as my bias is that the FED will not cut or might do 1 cut at the end of the year. In any case we are in a scenario where going into 2024, we were expecting so many cuts and over the course of the year, well we've had 0 cuts and still are not on course to having a consistent data print to cut. Meanwhile other central banks such as the ECB and BOE and more have started to cut, in this case the ECB who has started and in the case of the BOE it should be soon as they have reached their 2% inflation target. This outcome is presenting us with a Delta in interest rates making the USA much more attractive as interest rates get cut everywhere else apart from the there. There are so many other factors but another one worth mentioning is the political instability that has been ignited across Europe that could shift many policies therefore impacting current economical dynamics. So with that being said, here are the Technicals as well and we are looking to continue to short GU for the rest of the year with a first TP target at 1.21 and a 2nd TP target at 1.12. So we'll be risk managing along the way to step out if needed or to reassess the position if needed.

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