GBP/USD Short opportunity developing?
Background
The chart above shows The developing bearish impulse in GBP/USD since summer 2015
W]ave (I) is labelled as a leading diagonal
Wave (II) is a short 3 wave correction which is to be expected after a leading diagonal.
Wave (III) is an extended wave which itself subdivides into 5 waves. Wave (III) also equals 1.618 wave (I)
Wave (IV) takes the form of a Zig Zag. It has retraced into the territory of the 4th wave of a lesser degree, into Ichimoku resistance and also into base channel resistance. In addition, RSI also turned lower from the 60 level which is resistance in a bear trend.
We now look to be in the process of making wave (V) down. As wave (III) was extended expect wave (V) and wave (I) to tend towards equality. Wave (V) = Wave (I) at 1.3612 and therefore this is the first target
Opportunity
This is a drilled down chart of the developing wave (V)
Five wave impulse can be counted and so has been labelled as wave 1 of (V).
We are now working on wave 2 of (V). A three wave move has already been made and labelled as wave a. This rules out the possibility of a Zig Zag (as this is a 5, 3, 5 correction) and a triangle can only form in waves 4, b or X. Therefore, it is expected that this move will take the form of a flat correction which is a 3, 3, 5 move. We have already has the first 3 waves and are working on the second 3 (as per the green a, b and c. Once this is complete a 5 wave move is expected that will form wave c and this should move into the purple shaded area (wave 4 of a lesser degree) and also completes the correction
The next move should be a wave 3 of (V) and hence a sharp move lower. I will be waiting for the correction to complete before entering on a break of 4 of c with a stop just above the end of c and a target of 1.4612. I will post an update as this develops.
The chart above shows The developing bearish impulse in GBP/USD since summer 2015
W]ave (I) is labelled as a leading diagonal
Wave (II) is a short 3 wave correction which is to be expected after a leading diagonal.
Wave (III) is an extended wave which itself subdivides into 5 waves. Wave (III) also equals 1.618 wave (I)
Wave (IV) takes the form of a Zig Zag. It has retraced into the territory of the 4th wave of a lesser degree, into Ichimoku resistance and also into base channel resistance. In addition, RSI also turned lower from the 60 level which is resistance in a bear trend.
We now look to be in the process of making wave (V) down. As wave (III) was extended expect wave (V) and wave (I) to tend towards equality. Wave (V) = Wave (I) at 1.3612 and therefore this is the first target
Opportunity
This is a drilled down chart of the developing wave (V)
Five wave impulse can be counted and so has been labelled as wave 1 of (V).
We are now working on wave 2 of (V). A three wave move has already been made and labelled as wave a. This rules out the possibility of a Zig Zag (as this is a 5, 3, 5 correction) and a triangle can only form in waves 4, b or X. Therefore, it is expected that this move will take the form of a flat correction which is a 3, 3, 5 move. We have already has the first 3 waves and are working on the second 3 (as per the green a, b and c. Once this is complete a 5 wave move is expected that will form wave c and this should move into the purple shaded area (wave 4 of a lesser degree) and also completes the correction
The next move should be a wave 3 of (V) and hence a sharp move lower. I will be waiting for the correction to complete before entering on a break of 4 of c with a stop just above the end of c and a target of 1.4612. I will post an update as this develops.
Penafian
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