GBP/USD Consolidates Amid Economic Data Awaited

3 Apr

Following our previous analysis, GBP/USD experienced a breakout of the bearish triangle pattern within a bearish trend. Yesterday, the price retraced to a resistance area and is currently consolidating during the European session as it seeks direction for its next movement. Our outlook for GBP/USD aligns with our approach for EUR/USD, anticipating a continuation of the push-down after the release of today's economic news. We will employ a swing trading strategy, with the current pullback potentially serving as a trigger for further downward movement.

In the latter part of the day, the ADP will release private sector employment data for March. Expectations are for private payrolls to increase by 148K, following February's 140K rise. A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster the USD and exert downward pressure on the pair.

Later in the American session, attention will turn to the ISM Services PMI for potential market-moving insights. A notable uptick in the Prices Paid Index, which measures inflation within the PMI survey, could reignite concerns about sticky services inflation and prompt investors to reassess the likelihood of a policy shift in June. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 37% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in June.

In light of these factors, our stance remains tilted towards a bearish continuation for GBP/USD.