Description:
GC is currently trading within a high-probability inflection zone defined by confluence between structural demand, a well-defined fair value gap, and multi-timeframe descending trend line resistance. The asset is compressing between key volume thresholds and macro trend lines, presenting a binary scenario with favourable asymmetry in either direction.
Context & Market Structure
Chart Basis: 4H
Instruments Used:
GC1! (COMEX Gold August 2025 Futures)
20 & 50 EMA for short-term dynamic structure
Manual markups: S/D zones, FVGs, trendlines
Session Data: NY session highs/lows (previous day)
Key Technical Elements
Descending Trendline (Macro):
Initiated from swing high on July 5th, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Confirmed via 3+ touchpoints. Linear regression indicates slope remains intact.
Rising Trend line (Structural Support):
Originates from June 26th low supporting current bullish attempts. Intersection with demand and session low adds weight to this level.
Demand Zone (3280–3286):
Structurally valid with absorption wicks and bullish reaction. Volume clusters indicate localized buyer interest. Rejecting this zone twice already.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) (3297–3304):
Formed post-impulsive leg. Statistically, ~78% of FVGs in gold futures are filled within 2 sessions when no continuation candle follows which is the current setup.
Supply Zone (3314–3318):
Defined from previous consolidation pre-selloff. Aligns with ORB high + unfilled inefficiency, creating layered resistance.
Previous NY Session Levels:
High: 3310.0
Low: 3277.5
Price trading midpoint of this range increased probability of expansion after compression.
Scenario Mapping
Bullish Scenario:
Trigger: Break and 15-min hold above 3305
Validation: Acceptance into FVG zone + reclaim of previous session high
Target: 3316–3320 (supply zone + inefficiency fill)
Extended Target: 3334 swing high (mean reversion area)
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: Breakdown below 3277.5 session low
Validation: Failure to reclaim demand zone; increased volume on breakdown
Target: 3250 (local HVN & previous accumulation node)
Extended Target: 3227 structural low (trend continuation)
Bias Model:
Volatility Compression: 3-day ATR declining; tightening range.
Mean Reversion Probability (MPR): 58% if price returns to mid-FVG before rejection.
Expansion Probability (EXP): 64% post-session high/low sweep.
Trend Alignment Bias: Bearish until > 3305 is sustained. Below 3280, short bias accelerates.
Summary:
GC1! is currently in compression between confirmed demand and a clean FVG/supply stack, with trend lines boxing in price from both directions. A breakout from this tri-zone structure is statistically likely in the next session. I remain neutral-biased with actionable directional triggers above 3305 or below 3277.
Not a market to guess, wait for confirmation. High-quality setups require patience at the edge of structure.
Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆ (4.6/5)
GC is currently trading within a high-probability inflection zone defined by confluence between structural demand, a well-defined fair value gap, and multi-timeframe descending trend line resistance. The asset is compressing between key volume thresholds and macro trend lines, presenting a binary scenario with favourable asymmetry in either direction.
Context & Market Structure
Chart Basis: 4H
Instruments Used:
GC1! (COMEX Gold August 2025 Futures)
20 & 50 EMA for short-term dynamic structure
Manual markups: S/D zones, FVGs, trendlines
Session Data: NY session highs/lows (previous day)
Key Technical Elements
Descending Trendline (Macro):
Initiated from swing high on July 5th, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Confirmed via 3+ touchpoints. Linear regression indicates slope remains intact.
Rising Trend line (Structural Support):
Originates from June 26th low supporting current bullish attempts. Intersection with demand and session low adds weight to this level.
Demand Zone (3280–3286):
Structurally valid with absorption wicks and bullish reaction. Volume clusters indicate localized buyer interest. Rejecting this zone twice already.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) (3297–3304):
Formed post-impulsive leg. Statistically, ~78% of FVGs in gold futures are filled within 2 sessions when no continuation candle follows which is the current setup.
Supply Zone (3314–3318):
Defined from previous consolidation pre-selloff. Aligns with ORB high + unfilled inefficiency, creating layered resistance.
Previous NY Session Levels:
High: 3310.0
Low: 3277.5
Price trading midpoint of this range increased probability of expansion after compression.
Scenario Mapping
Bullish Scenario:
Trigger: Break and 15-min hold above 3305
Validation: Acceptance into FVG zone + reclaim of previous session high
Target: 3316–3320 (supply zone + inefficiency fill)
Extended Target: 3334 swing high (mean reversion area)
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: Breakdown below 3277.5 session low
Validation: Failure to reclaim demand zone; increased volume on breakdown
Target: 3250 (local HVN & previous accumulation node)
Extended Target: 3227 structural low (trend continuation)
Bias Model:
Volatility Compression: 3-day ATR declining; tightening range.
Mean Reversion Probability (MPR): 58% if price returns to mid-FVG before rejection.
Expansion Probability (EXP): 64% post-session high/low sweep.
Trend Alignment Bias: Bearish until > 3305 is sustained. Below 3280, short bias accelerates.
Summary:
GC1! is currently in compression between confirmed demand and a clean FVG/supply stack, with trend lines boxing in price from both directions. A breakout from this tri-zone structure is statistically likely in the next session. I remain neutral-biased with actionable directional triggers above 3305 or below 3277.
Not a market to guess, wait for confirmation. High-quality setups require patience at the edge of structure.
Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆ (4.6/5)
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.